金融危機之探討：以2008年金融海嘯為例

A Study of Financial Crisis:The Case of 2008 Financial Tsunami

卜令楷(Lin-Kai Bu)

指導教授 ： 李賢源

共同指導教授 ： 黃崇興(Chung-Hsing Huang)

國立臺灣大學/管理學院/商學組/碩士(2014年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2014.01591

摘要

2008年的金融海嘯，規模之大，範圍之廣，衝擊全世界，各行各業陷入愁雲慘霧中。美國幾間投資銀行的不良債權，竟然能引發如此嚴重的連鎖效應。其必有一定蓄積能量的過程，伴隨信心快速崩潰的機制，才能引發如此大規模、系統性的災難。本研究第一個議題就是針對金融危機的發生機制進行探討。2008年至今，已經有越來越多的資料與研究已經發表可供研究金融海嘯本身。同時也有許多世界各地、其他規模不等的金融危機資料可以參照比較。加上經濟學家從動物本能等等不同的角度分析金融海嘯。可以對金融危機發生的機制有更清楚的認識。第二個議題是刺激陷入蕭條的經濟的做法。各種理論很多，從2008年至今許多國家地區採取不同的策略。像美國的量化寬鬆與歐洲的撙節策略，至今也已經可以比較其成效之差異。論文最後提出兩個研究的方法來研究經濟體在金融危機時的特性。其一是採用雙穩態模型，說明經濟體系如何在信心狀態與恐慌狀態之間的快速切換。其二是用動物群體模型來模擬經濟活動。動物群體模型適合採用電腦模擬，可用來預測總體經濟的變動與分析。

關鍵字

金融海嘯 ； 金融危機 ； 動物本能 ； 雙穩態模型

並列摘要

The Financial Tsunami of 2008 has dramatically impacted the global economy for the following years. The non-performing loans (NPL) of some investment banks of the United States could induce serious chain reaction and caused the large-scale, systematic disaster. The first topic is to study the mechanism of financial crises. Since 2008, there are more and more materials and researches were published, which are helpful to the study of Financial Tsunami itself. Meanwhile, other financial crises before 2008, which have various scales and different stories, were adopted for comparison. Economists have proposed some theories, like Animal Spirits by Robert J. Shiller, help to build a clear picture about the mechanism. The second topic is how to recover from deep depression after financial crisis. Various strategies have been applied, like quantitative easing adopted by the United States and austerity was popular in the Europe. The time now is suitable to review the consequence of different strategies. Finally in the research, two new ideas were proposed to analyze the financial crisis. First, I applied a bi-stable model, it reveals the same characteristics of economics quickly changing from confidence to panic. Second, the swarm modeling was suggested to simulate the economic activities. Swarm modeling is suitable for computer simulation, which is helpful to predict and analyze the changing of global economics.

並列關鍵字

Financial tsunami ； Financial crisis ； Animal Spirit ； bi-stable modeling ； Swarm modeling

參考文獻

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