最適匯率目標區：圖形的解析

The Optimal Exchange Rate Target Zone：A Graphical Exposition

陳秀華(hsiu-hua chen)

指導教授 ： 賴景昌

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/經濟學研究所/碩士(2004年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2004.00857

摘要

本文建構一個物價僵固的小型開放經濟體系模型，在不同的需求面衝擊之下，首先解釋Krugman(1991)的匯率目標區推論(匯率與利率波動的關係)與實證結果的衝突。同時，本文也進一步利用圖形分析的方式，討論貨幣當局在追求總體社會福利損失極小化的前提下，如何決定最適的匯率政策以及最適目標區的寬窄。
本文的重要發現歸納如下：（1）不論本國經濟面臨商品或是貨幣市場需求面的隨機干擾，實施匯率目標區政策皆可對匯率帶來蜜月效果，但只有面臨商品市場需求面的隨機干擾，且資本移動程度相對較小時，匯率水準與本國及外國利率差距是呈現正向關係，符合實證結果。
（2）在本國經濟面臨隨機干擾之下，貨幣當局可以決定最適的匯率目標區間，而該區間的寬窄端視匯率目標區體制的實施可否同時穩定匯率與產出水準，以及貨幣當局較為關心一般物價還是產出而定。

關鍵字

目標區 ； 最適的匯率政策

並列摘要

This paper sets up a small open economy model with the rigid price, and considers the different types of capital mobility. Firstly, we explain the different outcomes between Krugman’s prediction of the target zone and the empirical observations under the demand shocks. Furthermore, this paper develops a graphical exposition, and then investigates how monetary authority determines the optimal exchange rate policy and the optimal currency band, when it wishes to minimize the macroeconomics social welfare loss.
It is found that：（1）No matter what shock happens, the exchange rate target zone policy will ensure that the honeymoon effect of the exchange rate is present. when only the capital mobility is relatively low and the stochastic goods demand shocks happens, the outcome fid with the empirical observations which a right deterministic relationship between the position of the exchange rate in the band and the differential between domestic and foreign interest rates.
（2）When there are the stochastic shocks , the monetary authority can determine the optimal currency band and the optimal band width depending on whether the exchange rate target zone policy stabilize both the exchange rate and output and what is more important the monetary authority concerns about.

並列關鍵字

optimal exchange rate policy ； Target Zone

參考文獻

曹添旺和張文雅 (2002)，國際金融干擾與最適匯率目標，《經濟論文》，30，247-273。

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Dornbusch, R. (1976), Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics. Journal of Political Economy, 84, 1161-1176.

Fleming, J. M. (1962), Domestic Financial Policies under Fixed and under Floating Exchange Rate. IMF Staff Paper, 19, 369-380.

Flood, R. P. and Garber, P. M. (1991), The Linkage between Speculative Attack and Target Zone Models of Exchange Rates. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106, 1367-1372.