全流域洪水預報模式的建置及其不確定性分析

Uncertainty analysis coupled with a basin-wide flood forecast model

林福如(Fu-Ru Lin)

指導教授 ： 蔡丁貴

共同指導教授 ： 蔡宛珊(Christina W. Tsai)

國立臺灣大學/工學院/土木工程學研究所/博士(2017年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU201703585

摘要

本研究旨在建構一套以全流域河川數值模型為基礎之不確定性分析計算模式，藉以探討大台北都會區洪水防護之風險評估，提供各不確定因素影響下之洪水預報。並利用本團隊所研發之不恆定流水理數值模式，來進行不確定性分析，以釐清水理及水文參數的變異性對於河川數值模型的影響。此模式包含如下特色：(1)檢討各項水文及地文之不確定性。(2)考量各種變數發生不確定性之即時動態模擬，並探討不恆定水理模擬合理之情境條件，模擬降雨、水庫洩洪及潮汐之各項不確定性對各河段洪水位之影響。(3)提供更長時間的預報，以爭取淹水高風險地區的民眾提早疏離之時效性，減少颱風災害損失。

關鍵字

不確定性分析 ； 全流域河川數值模型 ； 不恆定流水理數值模式 ； 即時動態模擬

並列摘要

This research attempts to construct a suitable uncertainty analysis approach coupled with the basin-wide model. The proposed modeling framework will not only investigate the flood protection risk in the metropolitan city of Taipei but forecast the flood under the influence of uncertainty factors. Based on the previous results of a hydraulic model for the unsteady flows, it is intended to extend uncertainty analysis integrated with our developed basin-wide river model to clarify the influence of hydrological and hydraulic parameters. In this research, major features of the model are included as follows: (1)Investigating the uncertainty of every hydrological and geological parameter; (2)Real-time scenario simulation forecasting based on uncertainty analysis of potential variables such as evaluating the scenario simulations of hydraulic model of unsteady flows, uncertainty of rainfall, reservoir discharge, and tide; (3) Providing longer-term forecasting and early time warning for evacuation plan of people in high risk zones to decrease the damages caused by typhoons.

並列關鍵字

uncertainty analysis ； basin-wide numerical model ； hydraulic model of unsteady flow ； real-time scenario simulation

參考文獻

1. Anagnostou, E. N., Krajewski, W. F., Seo, D. J.,and Johnson, E. R. (1998). “Mean-field radar rainfall bias studies for WSR-88D”, ASCE Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 3(3), 149–159.

2. Apel, H., Aronica, G.T., Kreibich, H., and Thieken, A.H. (2009), “Flood risk analyses—how detailed do we need to be?” Nature Hazards, 49(1), 79–98

3. Becker, L. and Yeh, W.W-G. (1972),“Identification of parameters in unsteady open channel flows＂, Water Resources Research, 8(4), 956-965.

4. Becker, L. and Yeh, W.W-G. (1973),“Identification of multiple reach channel parameters＂, Water Resources Research, 9(2), 326-335.

5. Behrangi et al. (2008), “Comment on “Dynamically dimensioned search algorithm for computationally efficient watershed model calibration” by Bryan A. Tolson and Christine A. Shoemaker, Water Resources Research, 44, W12603.