食安問題與種植預期心理對於蔬菜市場價格之影響-以小白菜交易市場為例

氣候、雨量、以及溫度等因素直接影響蔬菜生產量，也會改變農民的生產決策；另一方面，我國歷經連續的食安風暴事件後，民眾對於食品安全日益重視，對於不經加工的食品需求提升，這亦會影響農產品交易價格。本研究建構線性多元迴歸方程式模型，以小白菜為討論範例，研究食品安全與氣候因素對於小白菜交易價格的波動。研究結果顯示，當臺北或西螺批發市場的交易數量增加時，則小白菜臺北交易價格會出現下降的情形。食安事件的新聞報導對於小白菜臺北交易價格影響效果為正面。當拍賣日前一個月該旬臺北均價上漲，則會抑制市場的交易價格；產地的氣溫上升，對於生產端與需求端的價格都帶來負面衝擊。然而，種植日前一個月內發生高溫風險，導致小白菜收成欠佳，於是提高交易市場價格。當產地的雨量增加，損毀生長中的小白菜，造成產量下降，提高兩市場交易價格。

關鍵字

農民預期；食安問題；小白菜種植；氣候因素；產地價格

並列摘要

Factors such as climate, rainfall, and temperature can directly affect the production of vegetables and change farmers' production decisions. On the other hand, after continuous food safety storms in Taiwan, people are paying more attention to food safety and demand for unprocessed food. This increase will also affect the transaction price of agricultural products. In this paper, we apply a linear multiple regression model and use cabbage product as an example to study the fluctuations of food safety and climate factors on the transaction price. The results of the study show that when the number of Taipei or Xiluo trading markets increases, the price of small cabbages in Taipei will decline. The news report on the food security incident had a positive effect on the price of the cabbage trade in Taipei. When the average price of Taipei rises about a month before the auction date, it will suppress the market transaction price; the rise in the temperature of the origin will have a negative impact on the production and demand prices. However, the risk of high temperature occurred within one month before the planting date, resulting in a poor harvest of Chinese cabbage, so the market price was raised. When the rainfall in the place of production increases, it destroys the growing pakchoi, resulting in a decline in production and increasing the transaction price of the two markets.