- 學位論文
國際收支統計之編製及相關問題之研究
On Balance of Payments Compilation and its Related Issues
摘要
國際收支統計係一國對外經濟交易的有系統紀錄。我國台灣地區的國際收支統計自1958年即已開始編製。斯時主要目的為提供國際貨幣基金(International Monetary Fund)，遠礄玊痚磟偽篕痝f幣基金的會員國，而依國際貨幣基金協定(Articles of Agreement of The International Monetary Fund)第八條第五款規定，提供國際收支統計為會員國應盡義務之一。1979年我國雖然退出國際貨幣基金，惟為期我國國際收支統計仍能為國內外各界取得及應用，我國中央銀行仍繼續編製該項統計並對外提供。 國際收支統計具有重要的弁遄A由國際收支統計可以瞭解一國全盤的對外經濟金融活動及其對國內經濟金融的影響，因此為制定經貿金融政策及對外匯率談判的重要依據；而且為國民所得統計及資金流量統計對外交易帳之資料來源。 國際收支若長期失衡，可能有導致金融危機之虞，有關失衡之衡量及失衡調整之方法及理論則有多種。 隨著經濟金融國際化與自由化之推展，對外交易的類型與工具日益增多，國際間資金移動益見頻繁，可以提供對外交易全貌及分析國內與國際經濟關聯性之國際收支統計，日益受到各界之重視及應用。 1990年代中期以來，由於國際金融危機頻頻出現，促使國際金融組織與各國央行開始深入探討全球金融情勢惡化的徵兆與指標問題。由於全球金融體系的複雜性，單一指標無法用以評估金融體系是否穩定，而必須多方面思考建構金融體系健全性的完整面向。為防範金融危機的發生，國際金融組織近年來積極從事強化國際金融統計工作，如世界銀行強化「外債統計」，國際清算銀行增編「銀行國際債權債務統計」，國際貨幣基金增編「國際投資部位統計」及訂定「統計資料揭露標準」。 我國中央銀行為配合國際金融統計潮流及因應國際金融組織要求及自我要求，近年來亦陸續增編與對外交易有密切關係之統計，如外債統計、銀行國際債權債務統計，均附載於「國際收支平衡表季報」(BALANCE OF PAYMENTS QUARTERLY)，此外亦已試編完成「國際投資部位統計」。 本研究從國際收支之基本概念、項目內容及編製方法等之介紹入手，進而探討國際收支失衡之意義、衡量以及失衡之調整，再研析對外交易對經濟金融之影響以及與國民所得間之關係，最後則介紹國際金融統計之新發展，期望給讀者對國際收支有完整的認識。
並列摘要
The balance of payments is a systematic record of economic transactions between residents of one country and residents of the rest of the world for a given period of time. The Central Bank of China has compiled balance of payments statistics for the Taiwan district since the 1950s. As a member country of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Taiwan was required to furnish the IMF with balance of payments data in accordance with the Articles of Agreement of the International Monetary Fund (Article VIII, Section 5). Although Taiwan has not been a member country of the IMF since 1979, the Central Bank of China has continued to compile and publish balance of payments. The balance of payments plays an important role in macroeconomic policy and exchange rate determination, as it offers comprehensive information to assess an economy’s financial relations with the rest of the world. In addition, the balance of payments can be used in compiling national income statistics and flow of funds statistics. Long-term disequilibrium in the balance of payments could induce a financial crisis. There are various methods and theories relevant to measuring disequilibrium in the balance of payments and adjustment mechanisms. Increasing globalization and financial deregulation have lead to an increase in the volume of cross-board capital movements, and global financial products and transactions have accordingly become both more plentiful and sophisticated. Since the balance of payments records international transactions and presents the relationship between one country and the rest of the world, the demand for balance of payments has increased more than ever before. Since the mid 1990s, following a series of international financial crises, many international financial organizations and central banks have been intensively investigating the signs and indicators pertinent to a deterioration in the global financial situation. Due to the complexity of the global financial system, there is no single indicator that can be used to gauge whether a financial system is stable. Instead there is an extensive range of concepts that need to be taken into account to get a general picture of the soundness of a financial system. To prevent a recurrence of financial crises, international financial organizations have been actively working on strengthening international financial statistics. For instance, the World Bank has strengthened the compilation of External Debt Statistics and the Bank for International Settlements has additionally compiled Bank’s International Assets and Liabilities Statistics. Additionally, the IMF has compiled International Investment Position (IIP) statistics and established the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS). In order to meet the requirements of international financial organizations, and with the intention of aligning external statistics more closely with the international standards, the Central Bank of China has compiled a broader range of external financial statistics such as external debt statistics, bank’s international assets and liabilities statistics, which both are annexed to the Balance of Payments Quarterly. In addition, the Bank has compiled international investment position statistics. To provide readers with a better understanding of the balance of payments, this study is organized as follows. Firstly, it gives a brief introduction of the basic concepts, components and compilation methods of the balance of payments. Secondly, it describes the meaning of disequilibrium in the balance of payments, the ways of measuring the disequilibrium and the mechanism of adjustment to disequilibrium. Then, it addresses the impact of external transactions on macroeconomics and investigates the relationship between external transactions and national income. Finally, it describes new developments in international financial statistics.