川普政府對中政策(2017年1月至2019年6月)：攻勢現實主義的觀點

Trump Administration’s China Policy (January 2017-June 2019): Offensive Realism’s Perspective

黃宏吉(Hong-Ji Huang)

指導教授 ： 周繼祥

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/國家發展研究所/碩士(2019年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU201901606

摘要

本研究以攻勢現實主義理論觀點出發，檢視川普政府對中政策之形成背景、政策目標、具體作為，同時提出三大假設：中國已具備成為潛在霸權的條件、中國正試圖成為區域霸權、美國政府的對中政策已由防禦性轉為進攻性。接著建構理論檢驗指標以驗證研究假設，包括潛在霸權的能力與戰略作為，以及既有霸權的戰略選項，再進行理論評估與檢討。
本研究的主要發現如下：
一、川普政府對中政策是國際、國內與個人層次交錯影響下的產物
川普政府對中政策主要係對習近平上台後對外的擴張挑戰的回應，同時反映了美國社會傳統保守主義、反全球化主義、反建制主義、愛國主義的興起，以及兩黨對中政策立場的轉變，也受到川普總統個人的價值信仰與領導風格的影響。
二、中國具備成為潛在霸權的能力與意圖
在潛在霸權的能力上，在經濟上中國的實質GDP已超越美國，在軍事上中國已具備和美國打一場傳統戰爭的能力。在潛在霸權的意圖上，中國正以一帶一路、中國製造2025與南海擴張企圖成為東亞太平洋與中南亞的區域霸權。
三、川普政府對中政策以進攻性的抗衡為主軸
川普政府推翻過去美國歷任政府對中的建設性交往政策，以主動出擊的政策遏制中國的擴張，其進攻性展現在自由開放同盟為基石的印太戰略、市場經濟同盟為軸心的經貿制裁、以及軍事同盟為後盾的南海軍事行動三方面，以圍堵一帶一路、打擊中國製造2025、遏制中國的南海擴張。
四、攻勢現實主義是解釋大國行為的有力工具
中國作為潛在霸權的生存戰略，即以霸權地位、財富、傳統武力與核武嚇阻為目標，以及美國作為既有霸權的生存戰略，包括在政治、經濟、軍事層面的外部抗衡與內部抗衡，均與攻勢現實主義對霸權生存戰略的理論分析相當吻合。

關鍵字

川普政府 ； 攻勢現實主義 ； 潛在霸權 ； 生存戰略 ； 建設性交往 ； 抗衡

並列摘要

This thesis examines the Trump Administration’s policy toward China from the theoretical perspective of offensive realism. Three hypotheses are proposed for theoretical testing: China is capable of being a potential hegemony, China is attempting to become a regional hegemony, and U.S. Government’s China policy has turned from being defensive to offensive. Various indicators of potential power, strategic objectives, and strategic choices are devised for hypothesis testing, which is followed by theoretical evaluation and review. The main conclusions of the research discovery are summarized as below:

I. Trump Administration’s China policy is mainly driven by international, national and individual factors: The policy is a strategic response to China’s external expansion since Xi Jin-ping took power. The policy reflects the rise of conservatism, anti-globalizationalism, anti-establishmentarianism, patriotism as well as the bi-partisan convergence in tougher stances toward China. The policy is also affected by President Trump’s personal factors such as conservative beliefs, disrespect for established precedents and distaste for communism.

II. China is equipped with both the capabilities of and the intensions to becoming a potential hegemony: Regarding capabilities, China has surpassed the U.S. in real GDP and is capable of waging a conventional war with the U.S. Regarding intensions, China is attempting to become the regional hegemony in the Asia-Pacific and Central-Southern Asia by means of Belt and Road Initiative, Made in China 2025, and militarization in the South China Sea.

III. Trump Administration’s China policy is based on the pillar of strategic balancing: Trump Administration overturns the “constructive engagement” policy honored by previous administrations and instead takes on a new offensive policy of strategic balancing. The policies comprises Indo-Pacific strategy based on “free and open” alliances, trade and economic sanctions supported by market-economy alliances, and South China Sea military operations backed up by quasi-military alliances.

IV. Offensive realism is a potent theoretical tool in explaining great powers’ strategies: China’s survival strategies as a potential hegemony-with hegemonic status, wealth, traditional forces and nuclear power as major objectives-are congruent with offensive realism’s theoretical assumptions and analyses. So are the U.S.’s survival strategies as an incumbent hegemony, with internal and external balancing in political, economic, and military aspects.

並列關鍵字

Trump Administration ； offensive realism ； potential hegemony ； survival strategies ； constructive engagement ； balancing

參考文獻

壹、中文資料

一、書籍

王義桅、唐小松譯，《大國政治的悲劇》，台北：麥田出版(2014)。譯自Mearsheimer, John. The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. New York: W.W. Norton&Company, Inc( 2001)

王義桅，《一帶一路：機遇與挑戰》，香港：中華書局(2016)

王飛凌、劉驥譯，《中華秩序：中原、世界帝國與中國力量的本質》，台北：八旗文化(2018)。譯自Wang, Fei-Ling. The China Order: Centralia, World Empire, and the Nature of Chinese Power. New York: State University of New York Press(2017)