臺灣與東協貿易流量的變遷

東南亞國協預計在2018年底成立區域全面經濟夥伴關係 (ASEN Economic Community)，預計進一步統合10個員國與中國、印度、日本、韓國、澳洲以及紐西蘭的經貿關係。屆時東協將成為全球不可忽視的消費市場和單一生產基地。臺灣是否已經和東協各國建立足夠的經貿與合作關係，成為必須深入探討的議題。本研究運用引力模型(gravity model)作為分析模型的依據，從總經角度分析1995、2000、2005、2010、2015年度臺灣與東協地區的貿易流量變化，並且加入韓國、中國對東協的貿易關係，探討台灣與韓中兩國對東協國家貿易上的差別。實證結果顯示臺灣與東協的貿易關係比臺灣與非東協的貿易關係更加密切，臺灣與東協在2000年之後，就維持與東協維持一定的貿易關係，但韓國、中國與東協的貿易關係從1995年到2015年都比臺灣緊密，並且在韓國、中國先後與東協簽訂FTA之後，臺灣與韓中兩國在對東協貿易的差距又更加擴大。臺灣與東協各個會員國的貿易關係也不盡相同，比較熱絡的國家為新加坡、泰國、馬來西亞；貿易關係降溫的國家有印尼、菲律賓；貿易關係升溫的國家是越南；最後是貿易關係正常的國家有汶萊、柬埔寨、緬甸、寮國。根據實證結果，本研究提出對應的政策建議，針對經濟發展高的新加坡，吸引其前來臺灣投資設廠；馬來西亞和泰國經濟發展快速，臺商應利用在當地的投資優勢，搶佔兩國的市場；經濟發展程度低的東協國家，政府應鼓勵臺商投資當地國家重視的產業。東協近年進行內部整合的運作，但各會員國的經濟發展程度不一，政府應針對各會員國的發展需求，提供相應的政策，加強臺灣與東協的貿易關係。

關鍵字

東南亞國協；貿易流量；引力模型；新南向政策

並列摘要

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is expected to launch the ASEAN Economic Community by the end of 2018, further integrating the economic relationships among the 10 member countries, and China, India, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand. The ASEAN will become a globally prominent consumer market and a single production base. Therefore, whether Taiwan has established sufficient economic and trade relations and collaborations with the ASEAN countries warrants in-depth discussion. This study uses the gravity model to analyze the trade flow changes between Taiwan and the ASEAN region in 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015 from the macroeconomics perspective. It also considers the trade relations of South Korea and China with the ASEAN and discusses the differences between Taiwan and these two countries in trade with the ASEAN countries. The results show that Taiwan’s trade relations with the ASEAN are closer than with countries that are not members of ASEAN. Taiwan and the ASEAN have maintained stable trade relationships since 2000; however, between 1995 and 2015, South Korea and China maintained closer trade relations with the ASEAN than Taiwan. After South Korea and China signed free trade agreements (FTAs) with the ASEAN, the gap between Taiwan and the two countries widened in terms of trade with the ASEAN. There are major differences in the trade relations between Taiwan and ASEAN member countries. Countries that have closer ties with Taiwan include Singapore, Thailand, and Malaysia. Indonesia and the Philippines have more distant trade relationships, while Vietnam has developed a deeper trade relationship with Taiwan. Taiwan has normal trade relations with countries such as Brunei, Cambodia, Myanmar, and Laos. Based on empirical results, this study proposes policy recommendations to attract Singapore, a highly economically developed country, to invest in Taiwan and set up factories. As Malaysia and Thailand are undergoing rapid economic development, Taiwanese corporations should take advantage of their investments there to capture the market in both countries. In less economically developed ASEAN countries, the Taiwanese government should encourage entrepreneurs to invest in industries that are valued locally. Although the ASEAN has been boosting internal integration in recent years, the level of economic development in each member country is different. The government should implement appropriate strategies to respond to the developmental needs of each member country and strengthen trade relations between Taiwan and the ASEAN.