- 學位論文
海峽西岸經濟區(福建)競爭力之研究
Study of the Economic Zone on the West Coast of the Taiwan Strait's (Fujian) Competitive
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摘要
2005年中共中央十六大五中全會通過將「支持海峽西岸和其他台商投資相對集中地區的經濟發展，促進兩岸經濟技術交流和合作」列入十一五規畫內。福建之所以推動「海峽西岸經濟區」建設，一方面是為發展自身的經濟、連結南北兩大經濟區域，以提升綜合競爭力；一方面則是希望藉以發揮對台優勢，積極促進閩台的經濟整合。對中共中央當局而言，加強兩岸經濟方面之交流及合作，具有實現拉攏台灣的統戰意義。海峽西岸經濟區之構想，無論是從經濟面，抑是政治面，日後成功與否對兩岸經濟發展都會產生相當的影響。其於此動機，海峽西岸經濟區之構想、目的、優勢及可能遭遇的問題等皆是本文欲以研究之重點。具體而言本文研究目的如下： 一、說明中共當局提出海峽西岸經濟區的政策內涵和發展現況； 二、利用區域總體競爭力的概念，說明海峽西岸經濟區相對於其它省區之優劣勢； 三、利用實證而得的海峽西岸經濟區競爭力的結果，分析對台閩經濟發展之可能影響。 根據區域發展的經驗，當一個地區擁有政策傾斜的支持時，必然對其總體經濟實力、產業、金融、對外貿易、基礎建設、科技與創新、政府角色、社會、環境、教育等各方面的發展，產生相當深遠的影響。因此，本文便假設：一個地區的區域發展政策透過各項措施的實行之後，由地區的總體競爭力來衡量其結果；而地區政府又再根據自身的競爭力優劣勢，來制定新的發展規畫，以加強自身的發展。本文以2001年到2005年期間的福建總體競爭力變動，作為「海西區」發展之初的優劣勢基礎。同時也可以進一步評估，「海西區」政策提出是否有針對其發展的優劣勢進行改善。實證數據部份則是引用自2002年和2006年中國統計年鑑。 首先，本文在第三章針對海峽西岸經濟區的政策內涵和發展現況做了詳細的介紹，後採用因素分析法以計算出2001年和2005年各省市的的總體競爭力指標。實證結果為總體競爭力指標係分別為基礎經濟體質、對外依存和產業經營績效等3個次級指標，及其構成的20個變量。 依絕對排序的結果，福建的總體競爭力排序，在2001年是第6、2005年是第9；以「期間」的角度而言，則顯示出，在「十五」期間，福建的總體競爭力的排序是呈現「下降」的趨勢。「基礎經濟體質」指標代表了市場需求和基礎建設，這個指標從2001年的第6下降到2005年的第10。在「十五」期間，福建在基礎建設和市場需求這兩個面向的發展，相對落後於其他省份。這也說明了「海西區」計畫之所以提出的「內部經濟因素」，反應了福建地區在這方面發展的劣勢。不過，值得注意的事，在對外依存指標的變動上，呈現著持續成長和擴大的趨勢，這是是這段期間，福建具有競爭優勢之處。 從福建對外貿易具有競爭優勢之實證結論，以及配合台商在大陸整體和福建的經貿活動趨勢觀察，發現在福建最具競爭力的對外貿易活動中，有相當大的部份是來自於台商企業的貢獻。因此福建當局推動「海峽西岸經濟區」建設時，積極促進閩台的經濟整合，作為其規畫未來的經濟社會發展的訴求，是具有相當高度的政策合理性。 從分析結果得悉，福建的基本交通網路及經濟軟硬體措施之能量、閩台經貿合作之發展是否能如海峽西岸經濟區規畫，是持續觀察福建「海峽西岸經濟區」計劃能否成功的關鍵因素。綜合海西區對福建省內外的產業佈局和基本經濟體質競爭力的評估，在政策規畫上應朝向強調其連結南北兩大經濟區域之樞紐、國際中轉、輻射中部的區位優勢。關於利用閩台經貿合作，進一步提升福建的對外貿易競爭力部份，還必須要考量到目前或未來兩岸政治情勢下，政策的可行性。因此，中共中央對海西區的政策支持力度，是否能使閩台經貿政策脫離現有的政治困境，才是決定福建能否夠有效利用台商來維持其對外貿易競爭力優勢的關鍵。
並列摘要
In 2005 the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China had permitted suggestions of the 11th Five-Year plan. To support the Economic Zone on the West Coast of the Taiwan Strait (EZWCTS) is included. Fujian government hopes that with the political emphasis, its economy will be developed. At the same time this economic project could realize one of the Chinese central political goals--to unify Taiwan. Whether EZWCTS is successful or not will influence the economic development of the both sides of the Taiwan Strait. Due to these motives, the main points of this thesis are following: 1. Describe the policy and recent development of EZWCTS; 2. Use concepts of regional competitiveness to illustrate the pros and cons of EZWCTS as compared with other provinces. 3. Use the results of the practical analysis to analyze possible economic influences of the Taiwan Strait. According to empirical rules of regional development, if one region owns strong political support, its economy, industry, finance, trade, infrastructure, technology, innovation, society, education, environment and education will be strongly influenced. Therefore, it is supposed, though the overview of the whole regional competitiveness we could measure the outcome of each policy and then know its advantages and disadvantages. Local government could use those results to modify its development policy. This thesis takes the change of the overall competitiveness of Fujian province of the year 2001 and 2005 as the analytic basis in order to measure the development of EZWCTS. Meanwhile these results could be implied to evaluate its possibilities. In the third chapter the policy and recent development of EZWCTS are clearly introduced. Then we apply factor analysis to find out the common factors of the overall competitiveness of each province of the year 2001 and 2005. The three factors comprise “the basic economic structure”, “foreign dependence” and “enterprise performance”. These 3 factors include 20 components. According to the result of the factor analysis, Fujian’s rank of the year 2001 is 6th, but the rank of the year 2005 goes down to 9th. It might indicate that after the 10th Five-Year plan the Fujian’s competitiveness declines. From further research of the factor analysis, the common factor “the basic economic structure” could explain the main reason of recession. The rank of this factor goes from 6th in 2001 down to 10th in 2005. The basic economic structure also interprets demand and infrastructure. During the period of the 10th Five-Year plan, the development of demand and infrastructure in Fujian was obviously worse than others provinces. It also explains the intra economic policy of EZWCTS, which describes Fujian’s weaknesses. But otherwise, we should pay attention to the change of “Foreign dependence”. It goes up continuously. That also means Fujian has this advantage. As compared to results of this factor analysis with the statistic of foreign trade of Fujian, we can discover that most of foreign investment comes actually from Taiwan’s enterprises. From this point of view, we can realize why Fujian government emphasizes on integrating the economic development of Taiwan Strait. Fujian government regards this economic integration plan as an important issue for the coming year. Whether Fujian can develop the basic infrastructure, such as the traffic network and the capacity of economic software and hardware, or the cooperation with Taiwan or not is the key factor of success for EZWCTS. Due to Fujian’s economic plan and competitiveness, Fujian government should emphasize its strengths, such as transfer and inter location. About the economic integration plan, Cross-Strait relations and recent political atmosphere must be considered. Therefore whether present political difficulties could be overcome plays an important role. It indicates if Fujian could still have more and more foreign investment from Taiwan to maintain its competitiveness.
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