濁水溪流域農業資源變遷之情境分析與動態模擬

Scenario Analysis and Dynamic Simulation of Agriculture Material Flows in Choushui River Basin

黃屏綸(Ping-Lun Huang)

指導教授 ： 張慶源

國立臺灣大學/工學院/環境工程學研究所/碩士(2005年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2005.00939

摘要

流域是自然界重要的地理單元，人類則透過農業活動與河川、流域產生了強力的連結，因此釐清流域與農業之關係，便成了環境資源管理之重要議題。
本研究選定濁水溪流域，採用既有之縣市與鄉鎮市農業統計資料，推估以流域為單元之農業物質生產狀況，以建置「濁水溪流域農業資源資料庫」。針對歷年農業指標之變化趨勢，探討濁水溪流域之農業現況與面臨之問題。並利用系統動態模擬軟體，進行濁水溪流域農業物質流架構之動態系統模擬，模擬農業物質生產量、消費量、廢棄物產量，以及農業物質之輸出、輸入量。
研究結果顯示：濁水溪流域是台灣重要的農業產地與農產品輸出區域：其中以農作產量最為龐大，多輸出到流域之外；畜牧產量與畜牧百分比皆逐年上升，不僅將畜產品大量輸出到流域之外，更有產業變化的情形發生；林業產量與漁業產量則極少，必須依賴流域外物質的輸入。
最後，本研究之研究成果為：釐清既有縣市、鄉鎮市農業統計資料之關係，建立一套流域農業統計數值之估計方式；並以農業物質流架構，採用系統動態模擬之方式，推估未來濁水溪流域之農業生產、消費、廢棄物產出與輸出、輸入等量值。

關鍵字

流域管理 ； 農業物質 ； 濁水溪流域 ； 系統動態模式 ； 物質流分析

並列摘要

River basin is an important geographic unit in nature. Through Agriculture activity, people have strong connection with river basin. Therefore, it becomes a crucial issue for environmental resource management to clarify the relationship between river basin and agriculture.
This study selects Choushui River-Basin as the research border to establish “Agricultural Resource Data Base of Choushui River-Basin.” This data base is constructed on the base of agriculture statistic data of county and town, and then used to estimate the agricultural material production of Choushui River-Basin. The study analyzes the historical trend of agricultural indicators to discuss the current agricultural situation in Choushui River-Basin and to search the problems in this region.
The research takes a dynamic simulating software “Stella” as a constructive method, which is used for analyze agricultural indicators of the historical data to find out all the pathways of material flows in Choushui River-Basin. The software is also capable of modeling future agricultural production, consumption, waste, river material import, and export.
The research results show that Choushui River-Basin is an important agricultural base in Taiwan, which produces and exports enormous amount of agricultural material each year. And farming takes the biggest part of material production and export in the whole region. Meanwhile, livestock also produces and exports lots of material out of the region, and its percentage is increasing every year, which strongly indicates a shift of production styles is ongoing in this area. On the other hand, the results also indicate Choushui River-Basin has only scarce amount of forestry and fishery production. As a result, the region still imports material to supply the short of forestry and fishery production.
Furthermore, the outcome of this study is to establish “Agricultural Resource Data Base of Choushui River-Basin” as well as a model to estimate future agricultural statistic data of this river basin. This study adapts a system dynamic model, which is based on the structure of agricultural material flows, to analyze and predict the future agricultural production, consumption, waste, material import, and export in Choushui River-Basin.

並列關鍵字

Choushui River Basin ； System dynamic modeling ； Material Flows Analysis(MFA) ； Agriculture material ； River basin management

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