東亞朝貢體系下的「戰爭或和平」：以中越、中韓關係為例

當代中國的實力（capability）上升，是否也反映他對外的意圖（intention）？不論採取的是悲觀論的擴張，或保守的持平論，甚至是樂觀論的不擴張，如果不回溯歷史，便無法解釋中國對外行為的兩面性，以及與東亞國家的關係型態如何成形。由於中國崛起（the rise of China）的趨勢可能演變成歷史上帝國的回歸，因此要探討「現在」就必須回溯「過去」。歷史上的中國對外的行為與關係，能否被源自歐洲西發里亞體系的現實主義理論所解釋，或必須結合中國歷史與理念的特殊性，甚至需要重新挖掘歷史，開展一套新興的理論，才能解釋歷史中國？以歷史上的東亞區域，與中國關係最密切的兩個國家──越南與韓國為例，本文將回溯東亞歷史上大小國關係中的戰爭與和平局面，由於主動方通常在大國，因此以大國視角取鏡。中國對東亞中小國家的戰略與與政策的取捨因素如下：中國對外採取攻勢現實主義，會追求無止盡的擴張，所以會對東亞國家進行「兼併」；然而，如果「強敵環伺」或「內部統治不穩定」（政變或內亂出現），中國不會對周邊進行兼併，而是轉為「羈縻」；從「羈縻」轉換成「和平」的朝貢關係，則需要非物質因素的影響，本文界定為「歷史經驗」的因素與「權威確保」的因素。朝貢關係的形成，並不意味永久和平，當非物質因素受到破壞，中國仍然會出兵小國。本文將此論點運用在歷史還有當代的中越關係與中韓關係上，並在結尾提出對台灣的啟示與建議。研究發現，「歷史中國」對越南與韓國一貫採取「兼併」，但在歷經無數次的失敗與耗損大量資源的經驗，讓「歷史中國」形成歷史認知(historical cognition)，認知到韓國與越南都是文化與認同迥異的國家。同樣在明朝時期，雙方的關係形態都轉為「和平」的常態(Normalcy)，朝貢體系得以穩定運作。這個歷史經驗與認知，也被當代中國所承襲，因此中韓關係與中越關係，並不會溢出這個軌道。除非是歷史上從沒有爭奪與占領的區域，例如南海。

關鍵字

中國；東亞；朝貢體系；歷史途徑；現實主義；中越關係；中韓關係；大歷史

並列摘要

The fact,The modern China’s rising capabilities,means its intention in the future? There are three main types about the argument:Pessimist,Conservatives and Optimist.No matter which theories will be correctly predicted, if we don’t trace back to the history, we can’t explain the two blades of Chinese bebavior.In addition,we never know how the the relations with East Asian countries become. The trend of the rising China may become the return of the empire in the history,hence, to recognize the present age should date back to the past age. Here is the critical puzzle:The research subject,The historical China whose behavior and relations with other countries can be explained by the Realism from European Westphalian system,or the Exceptionalism from the Chinese history and culture,or even need to construct a new theory based on the Chinese history. On account of Vietnam and Korea as the closest countries with China in the East Asian history,the thesis will focus on the situation of “war or peace” in the relations between the historical China and the East Asian countries. As a result of the asymmetric feature,take the perspective of China. The strategy and policy of historical China consist of the following:The strategy of Chinese behavior would correspond to the prediction of Offensive Realism, pursuing the expansion in maximum,so it will “annex” the East Asian countries;however,if it is confronted with threat from geopolitics,or the inner politics are in the turmoil,such as coup or civil strife, China would take the strategy of “jimi”(羈縻) instead of pursuing the goal of annexation;Turning the”jimi” into “peace” in the tribute system needs the influence of historical experiences and the authoritative factor. The formation of tribute system does not imply the perpetual peace,if non-material factors are broken down,China still use force to East Asian countries. The essay will put the argument into the modern Sino-Vietnamese and Sino-Korean relations,also,in the conclusion give some advices and inspiration to Taiwan.The research found that historical China always pursued the goal of annexation to Vietnam and Korea until several failed conflicts and wars occurred as well as abundant resources were wasted,which makes China constitute the “Historical Cognition”.Recognizing that Vietnam and Korea are different countries in terms of national identity and culture. This historical experience and cognition are also inherited by the modern China,hence Sino-Vietnamese and Sino-Korean relations won’t deviate from the track,unless the region never be contested and occupied,for example,the South China Sea.