以路徑依賴觀點看中共共青團實力——從十六大至十八大

The Analysis of the Power of China Communist Youth League Based on Path Dependent Theory: Use the List of the Members of China Central Committee from 16 Da to 18 Da.

江柏翰(Po-Han Chiang)

指導教授 ： 周繼祥

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/國家發展研究所/碩士(2015年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2015.01930

摘要

中國共產黨自1978年改革開放以來，由鄧小平將之前具毛澤東個人魅力的「主席制」改成「總書記制」，開啟了至今的「集體領導」。至2012年底，由胡錦濤主政之集體領導班子已經過了三代，同時正式邁入十八代後的第四代「習李」接班體制。目前，學界將中共領導派系分作團派、上海幫、秘書群、太子黨、海歸派等組成的政治網絡。其中，以共產主義青年團（以下簡稱共青團）所代表的「團派」被視為中央最顯著的派系之一。這些「團派」人馬，在同是共青團出身的前領導人胡錦濤提拔下，陸續進入中央並在十七大後達到高峰。雖然胡宣示在十八大全面退出，但是十八大後接班人之一「李克強」也是共青團出身，且目前團派勢力在政治局常委、委員名單比起十七大時共青團勢力有增無減。

因此，為證明團派勢力增加與其在中共中央政治甄補的不可取代性，本研究透過提出「路徑依賴理論」。經由路徑依賴的質化、量化研究途徑，發現在質化方面，共青團具有優勢諸如：共青團幹部年齡較輕、學歷較高，年齡與學歷正是鄧小平所提「幹部四化」選拔領導人之標準相類似，使其不斷產生制度強化，確保歷史遺緒的持續性；量化部分，再分析不同指標與中央委員的晉升時間相關性，可得知其中共青團在十七大、十八大第一次升遷期間達到顯著標準。此或可解釋存在「升遷競賽模型」，惟在「快速升遷管道」模型中，無任一指標達到顯著相關。因此就現階段而言，將「加入共青團」視為取得升遷優勢的假設是具統計學一定程度的支持，但仍待更多資料去驗證其因果關係。

誠然，共青團以全國作為範圍進行幹部篩選吸納、甄補之特徵優勢，大大有別於傳統派系所沒有之優勢與持續特性，保證中共中央所需人力資源不虞匱乏。因此，共青團實力在這幾年持續增強並逐漸制度化，超越單純是「胡系人馬」的鬆散概念。無論接下來中共的接班領導是否為此派系出身，中共領導將會利用這項資源鞏固權力，選用人才，使得共青團勢力仍會持續維繫、加強完善其既存的制度甄補機制。

關鍵字

政治甄補 ； 路徑依賴理論 ； 歷史遺緒 ； 升遷競賽模型 ； 特別升遷模型

並列摘要

Since the implementation of reform and open policy in China Communist and market, the ex-general secretary Deng Xiaoping has transferred the highest execute power from president to general secretary as well as set up the structure of “collective leadership,” for avoiding the chaos resulted from the charismatic leadership and dictatorship in the ruling period of Mao Zedong. Nowadays, the collective leadership has operated in China politics through three generations, and will continue functioning from Hu Jintao to the fourth gereration, which lead by Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang.

Now, the academia of Chinese politics has categorized the five group, Crown prince party, Shanghai clique, Secretary clique, Communist youth league, Returned scholars (haiguipai) to describe the interaction among different politicians and parties in centre government. Among them, Communist youth league is the most remarkable party and has continued expand their influence in China politics by the increasing numbers in the member of Central committee. Although Hu Jintao, who had make the effort to send many Communist youth league cadres into the committee since 17th CPC National Congress, claimed that he would withdraw from any official position at the end of 18th CPC National Congress, people still believe that the Premier of the State Council Li Keqiang, who has the same origin as Hu, will lead the Communist youth league and achieve more expansion of the power in Central committee compared to the former generation.

Noticed this phenomenon, this research tries to use “Path Dependence Theory” to analyst the influence of Communist youth league in China politics. According to the qualitative analysis, my research figured out that Communist youth league remain high intensity of historical spported by such features like younger age and higer education that are adapted “Four Modernaization (Sihua)”. In addition, according to the quantitative analysis, my research transferred the list of Central committee from 16th to 18th CPC National Congress into six classification of variables. Through the statistic operation, my research statistically supported that it would take fewer year for a politican to upgrade his/herment position into Central committee while he/she was a member of Communist youth league before.

並列關鍵字

Political Recruitment ； Path Dependent Theory ； Historical Legacy ； Tournament Mobility Model ； Fast Tack Promotion Model

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