桃園市老人福利預算編列決策模式之研究：以三節敬老金排富為例

民國86年桃園縣政府（民國103年正式升格桃園市）為發揮敬老美德，宣布發放三節敬老金，部分地方政府也視財政狀況開辦類似之敬老金措施。然經過24年，臺灣老人比率從8%成長至14.56%，臺灣也從高齡化社會進入高齡社會。桃園市老人三節敬老金發放人數及金額，由開辦之初老年人口約12萬人、需7億元經費，至去（109）年老年人口已成長至28萬餘人、經費需21億元。老年人口的福利與預算編列一直是不論哪個黨派都長期在關注以及投入的議題。無論執政者是誰，隸屬於哪個黨派，對於財政和各類資源的分配都相對艱辛，尤其是在整體國力財政拮据的情況下，會出現預算互相排擠的現象。因此，桃園市宣布自110年起刪減老人三節敬老金，並增設排富條款。政治人物多以選票為考量，桃園市政府如何審慎評估此項決策的政治效益，本研究將採取文獻分析與深度訪談法，研究目的有以下四項：桃園市在持續進行老年人三節敬老金發放時之考量。桃園市的老人福利預算編列決策模式分析並了解。桃園市三節敬老金已持續發放24年，現在更改的原因為何。桃園市的老人三節敬老金排富決策，受到哪些因素進行成本重分配。研究發現桃園市刪減老人三節敬老金的決策模式，決策者扮演舉足輕重的角色。外在客觀因素為財政拮据狀況已經到達臨界點，做邊際的修正調整，能縮小爭辯衝突的範圍，並且透過排富條款的運用，減少族群間的相對剝奪感。而在今(110)年度提出則符合政治景氣理論的觀點，加上整體社會福利現金給付易放難收，在分配政治理論下，持續發放便能持續分配利益，以鞏固選票。

關鍵字

三節敬老金；排富條款；分配政治；決策模式；政治景氣循環

並列摘要

In 1997, the Taoyuan County Government (which was upgraded to a special municipality in 2014), in order to venerate the elderly, announced monetary gifts to its senior citizens for the three traditional festivals. Some of Taiwan’s local governments also introduced similar measures based on their fiscal policy. However, the proportion of elderly people in Taiwan has increased from 8% to 14.56% since 1997, signifying that Taiwan has entered an aged society. In Taoyuan, the elderly population was about 120,000, requiring NT$700 million in funding for this measure in the very beginning. By the end of the year 2020, the elderly population had grown to more than 280,000 and the expenditure tripled to NT$2.1 billion. The welfare and budgeting of the elderly population has long been a hotly discussed issue. To the incumbents of all parties, the allocation of finances and various resources is relatively difficult under the circumstances of recent fiscal stress. Therefore, the Taoyuan City Government announced to slash financial gifts to elderly for the three traditional festivals with wealth restrictions, effective in 2021. Politicians mostly prioritize their personal vote, and hence how the Taoyuan City Government would carefully evaluate the political benefits of this decision is the focus. This study adopts the method of Document Analysis and In-Depth Interviews. The purposes of the research are as follows: to investigate the considerations of the Taoyuan City Government when it continues to implement the financial gifts for the elderly; to analyze the decision-making model of the elderly welfare budget in Taoyuan City; to explain the change of the measure after its 24-year implementation; to find out the factors that affect the decision to re-allocate the costs for the financial gifts to the elderly for the three traditional festivals with wealth restrictions. The study shows that in Taoyuan City, the decision-makers play a pivotal role. The external objective factor is that finances have reached the critical point for balance. Making slightly adjustments can narrow the scope of disputes and conflicts, and reduce the relative deprivation among ethnic groups through the use of wealth restrictions. In 2021, the implementation of the revised measure accords with the Political Business Cycle Theory. In addition, the overall social welfare cash payment is easier to release than to revoke. Under the distributive politics theory, continuous distribution can ensure the allocation of the benefits to consolidate the personal vote.