分離主義作為進攻性現實主義理論途徑的補充 —以俄羅斯在克里米亞和頓巴斯的行動為例

Separatism as Supplement to the Theoretical Approach of Offensive Realism --Taking Russia's Actions in the Crimean and Donbas as an example

唐辰(Chen Tang)

指導教授 ： 張登及

共同指導教授 ： 馬丁·雷戈(Martin Riegl)

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/政治學研究所/碩士(2021年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU202103864

摘要

本篇論文討論烏克蘭東部和南部領土的軍事衝突，包括從 2014 年直到現在（2020 年）發生的克里米亞危機和頓巴斯地區的戰爭。根據烏克蘭憲法和國際法，這些地區仍然是烏克蘭的一部分，但俄羅斯實際上控制著克里米亞半島，且與頓巴斯地區的分離主義者交往密切。
2014年，由於不滿時任烏克蘭總統亞努科維奇被免職，克里米亞在俄羅斯軍隊的幫助下，反對新成立的中央政府。隨後，他們選出了自己的議會，並投票宣布獨立。此後，克里米亞成功舉行了是否“回歸”俄羅斯的全民公投，受到國際社會的譴責。儘管投票率和讚成率都受到質疑，但公投聲稱以非常高的票數獲得通過，隨後克里米亞正式加入俄羅斯聯邦。克里米亞公投的結果沒有被烏克蘭政府接受，俄羅斯也因干預這場危機受到西方國際社會的製裁。在此之後，烏克蘭東部的部分親俄地區也跟隨克里米亞的腳步宣佈獨立，打算“重新加入（rejoin）”俄羅斯聯邦。兩次明斯克條約（Minsk treaties）簽訂後，儘管頓巴斯未能如預期般加入俄羅斯，但它一直保持著事實上的獨立地位，武裝對抗烏克蘭的中央政府。
作為闡明國際關係的宏觀理論，進攻性現實主義雖然存在一定的缺陷，但對於解釋和預測戰爭，尤其是與大國權力鬥爭有關的戰爭行為相當具有價值。分析大國在特定地區的行為時，進攻性現實主義是一種不可替代的理論分析工具，其理論預設與特定案例的實際情況相當吻合。該理論假定大國是理性的行動者，以生存為目標，因此渴望獲得權力以成為地區霸權。
因此，進攻性現實主義通常有助於描述俄羅斯在國際舞台上的行為和戰略，尤其是俄羅斯在過去幾十年中與車臣、格魯吉亞和烏克蘭的軍事行動。然而，該理論本身需要一些修正，例如大國如何對待中等強國，以及大國在當今的自由秩序體系中如何實現它們激進的目標。

關鍵字

攻勢現實主義 ； 分離主義 ； 克里米亞危機 ； 頓巴斯戰爭

並列摘要

This thesis is about the military conflict in eastern and southern territories of Ukraine, including the Crimean crisis and War in the Donbas area that took place from 2014 till this present time (2020). According to international law, these regions are still part of Ukraine, however, Russia de facto controls the Crimea Peninsula and the Donbass region.
Due to dissatisfaction with the dismissal of Ukrainian President Yanukovych, Crimea opposed the new central government with the help of Russian military forces. Subsequently, they elected their own parliament and voted to declare independence. They then successfully held a referendum on whether to "return" to Russia which is biased and condemned by the international community. The referendum claimed to be passed with a very high number of votes although both the turnout and the votes in favor have been questioned, then Crimea officially joined the Russian Federation. The results of the Crimean referendum were not accepted by the Ukrainian government, and Russia was also sanctioned by the Western-based international community due to this crisis. What’s more, part of the pro-Russian region in eastern Ukraine has also followed the independence of Crimea and intended to "rejoin" Russia Federal. After the two Minsk treaties, in spite of the fact that Donbass failed to join Russia as expected, it has maintained the status of de facto independence against the Ukrainian central government.
As a macro theory elucidating international relations, offensive realism has some shortcomings, but it is valuable for the exact purpose of explaining and predicting war, especially wars related to power struggles of great powers. When we analyze the behavior of great powers in specific regions, offensive realism is an irreplaceable theoretical analysis tool, and the presupposition of the theory is very consistent with the actual situation of particular cases. The theory assumes that great powers are rational actors, with survival as their goal, so they are eager to obtain power in order to become the regional hegemony.
Therefore, offensive realism is typically useful to characterize Russia’s behavior and strategy on the international stage, especially Russian military operations with Chechnya, Georgia, and Ukraine in the last several decades. However, the theory itself needs some amendments such as how great power treats middle power and how their goals are achieved in today’s liberal order system.

並列關鍵字

offensive realism ； separatism ； Crimean crisis ； War in Donbass

參考文獻

Monographs

Allworth, E. A., 1998, The Tatars of Crimea: Return to the Homeland: Studies and Documents, Durham: Duke University Press. ISBN 978-0822319948.

Davies, B. L., 2014, Warfare, State and Society on the Black Sea Steppe, Routledge. ISBN 9780415239868.

Davies, R. W., Stephen G. Wheatcroft, 2010, The Years of Hunger: Soviet Agriculture 1931–1933, Houndmills: Palgrave Macmillan, ISBN 978-0-230-23855-8.

Figes, O., 2012, The Crimean War: A History, USA: Picador. ISBN 978-1250002525.