溫室氣體效應評估模型之建立與分析

溫室氣體（Greenhouse gases, GHGs）的排放及其衍生的議題，包含能源的使用、全球平均溫度改變、氣候變遷、生態脆弱度以及國家政策與國際公約的擬定，形成一複雜、環環相扣且可視為有動態關連性的國際環境保護與政治的議題；因此將溫室氣體排放-氣候變遷簡化為因果鏈 (chain of causality)來描述其可能的範疇 (UNFCCC, 2002; WRI, 2005)。因果鏈主要考量延滯性、非線性效應與回饋，及評估起始數據，因此若能選取適宜的指標於其間，對於政策的分析亦有影響。然而芬蘭學者Hukkinen (2003)指出，如果因果關係鏈(cause-and-effect chains) 假設的基本理論與實際應用受質疑，則以該指標來評定活動行為與環境改變之間的差錯，很可能將是白費力氣；Hukkinen 認為訂出人類活動與環境間通用的指標於理論上不可行且實際應用上是有問題的，此外，資料的可及性成為國際間比較的重要關鍵。而資料的可及性與制度有關，因此永續評估與指標連結將受到很大的限制，顯然的，不同的議題將受制於我們需以個別（相對於通用而言）的鏡頭觀察，因此對於發展的注解可能是有條件的。使用指標可以監測環境衝擊、評估政策與法規的效益、及提供長期的驗證資料，此外，亦能政策決定的有效工具與跨國比較；而所謂永續性指標，係將環境及自然資源的限制反映在經濟指標上，而以修正經濟活動為目的，反映不同開發方式對自然環境再生能力的影響；永續性指標不僅是現象描述，更是現在和未來現象的規範評量指標（Opschoor and Reijnders， 1991）。就資源的使用狀況而言，追求永續發展需滿足三個條件(Daly, 1990)：1.再生資源的消費量不可超過其再生量、2.不可再生資源的消費量不可大於再生資源供給的增加量、3.排放污染量不考高於環境吸收能力。然而，上述三個條件在人類活動不斷的擴增下，愈來愈無法被滿足，特別是近年來過度的森林砍伐及化石燃料的使用，使得大氣層CO2 濃度節節高升，威脅人類生存空間，溫室氣體衍生的各類成為新世紀國際追求永續發展的重要課題。目前國際間溫室氣體與能源相關之研究偏向CO2 排放量（包括總排放量、人均排放量….等）跨國比較；而根據京都議定書之內容目前亦重在盤點、清冊建立、研擬CO2 減量模式、政策措施管制模式等；而有關準則與指標建立方面，尚未跳脫上述格局；源於此，研究方向將朝向適合溫室氣體整合評量指標建立，而考量能源與CO2 排放具有緊密關聯性，因此亦將永續能源發展加入評估準則中，並與國際評量指標系統比較；此外，亦針對目前二氧化碳永續指標之計算係為單一值的結果，往往僅能針對量化指標（在壓力-狀態-回應(PSR)永續指標架構中係指生態環境狀態、社經壓力與制度回應指標）、卻無法解釋更重要的質化指標--亦稱廣域性指標（非專屬單一議題）意義等問題，以PSR 模型進行文獻回顧說明國際間使用的各項分類指標與變數間的意義、定義及角色與特性說明，作進一步研究討論，提出驅動力-壓力-狀態-衝擊-回應(DPSIR)模型之評量準則與指標。審視台灣現階段與國際比較的指標，及台灣永續評量系統，可以明白有關溫室氣體減量評量指標，雖顧及資料可及性，即達到可與國際間比較目標，然而，卻因忽略了台灣能源結構與高能源進口比例（至2003 年為97%），使得台灣在全球的溫室氣體貢獻排名高居不下；而永續評量系統中，亦僅針對部門二氧化碳排放量（並以人均排放量為分析重點），無法明確的顯示台灣實際溫室氣體排放狀況；而長期忽略基礎研究的現況，亦使得在國際文獻中少有機會提出適合台灣狀況的準則/指標評量，與量化結果。本研究即根據上述模型，分析出台灣的相關指標趨勢來驗證模型的合理性。環境污染往往來自於經濟活動，預測溫室氣體減量政策與排放量最適成長、經濟成長間的關係（如GDP, 所得, 能源價格），可利用內生長模型(endogenous growth model)多變數結構的特質，來模擬不同政策結果，如能源價格因國而異，能源相關支出的高低（如進口能源或開採能源）會影響能源的需求量，進而對於能源替代彈性有影響。本研究模擬排放量成長率與經濟成長率間的關連性，包括在執行環境保護支出行政命令的經濟體系的溫室氣體控制效率(efficiency)會比在自由競爭經濟體系為佳，而內生長模型中經濟成長與排放成長的根據各項參數模擬出溫室氣體排放彈性與溫室氣體控制支出彈性最適範圍。本研究完成之成果有三： 1. 回顧國際間與溫室氣體議題相關之指標文獻及以PSR模型進行分類；建立DPSIR 溫室氣體效應與氣候變遷評量指標模型；並完成溫室氣體排放因果鏈(cause-effect chain of GHGs emission)與指標系統的結合。 2. 利用台灣永續評量系統的方法論，以台灣經驗為例，分析DPSIR溫室氣體效應與氣候變遷評量指標模型中指標趨勢，並驗證指標選用的合理性。 3. 以內生長模型分析，進一步瞭解不同的能源使用與政府政策對CO2 排放影響，及討論可用能源、技術比例、與其他生態環境因子等因素來探討未來發展永續與否。

關鍵字

溫室氣體； DPSIR模型；溫室氣體排放因果鏈；內生長模型

並列摘要

The aggravated impacts of environment in particular release material emissions and energy by anthropogenic activities: for instance, anthropogenic emissions have been identified as a source of climate change being a serious issue. The challenge of reducing the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) at local and global levels requires behavioral changes in life styles and energy consumption patterns in people, and the use of more energy efficient production, processing and distribution technologies. Own to the multi dimensions such as, economic development, the level of technology, supply/demand of energy, the structure of industry, complex international environment, political states are related to the issues of GHGs effects reducing and climate change. In dealing with the complex issues of greenhouse gases (GHGs) emission and climate change mitigation, many interrelated factors such as cost, level of technology development, supply and demand of energy, structure of industry, and expenditures on research and development exist. Using indicators to monitor environmental impacts, evaluate the efficacies of policies, and regulations has been practiced for a long time; and it can serve as a useful tool for decision making and for comparison between different countries. Although numerous indicators have been developed for relevant subjects, integrated approaches that consider individual changes, dynamic interaction, and mutli-dimensions of indicators are scarce. This paper aimed to develop and analysis the GHGs indicators related climate change and sustainable energy assessment model. Taiwan is a significant source of global GHGs emissions. A case study, using the developed framework and Taiwan’s actual data of the past two decades, was conducted. The results indicate that regulatory strategies for pollution control are inadequate in terms of ensuring environmental quality, and the nature does not have the capability to revert the impacts from the existing level of pollution. A DPSIR (Driving Force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response) framework under the cause-effect chain of GHGs emissions was used to assess the problems. This DPSIR model is mainly related to energy consumption, environmental impacts, and policy responses. Consider the optimal development between economic development and GHGs emissions control, an endogenous growth model to link energy use, relative energy price and GDP, and abatement technologies imposed by government for optimal emission control. Simulations were conducted to develop a structure’s relationship between energy consumption and emission reduction; while parameterization was made with the real data of Taiwan. The objectives of the paper were: (1) conduct a literature review on the indicators that have been used in GHGs-related studies; (2) develop a DPSIR model that incorporates GHGs-related indicators and evaluate their relationships using a cause-effect chain of GHGs emission; and (3) develop a calculative method that can be used to explain the dynamic correlation among the inter-dependent indicators. The results reveal that: (1) an increase in governmental expenditure in environment pollution abatement will increase the efficiency of emission control, and its economic growth rate will be greater than that of the competitive economy in the long-time; (2) one should consider the elasticity of substitution in energy use will influence the energy demand diminishes as energy expenditure decrease; and (3) the range between elasticity of emission and the elasticity of expenditure for GHGs emission control can be a significant factor in an endogenous growth model. Using cleaner energy or optimizing energy structure could benefit both economic growth and emission control.

並列關鍵字

Greenhouse Effect ； Indicator ； Cause-Effect Chain ； Driving Force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response ； Endogenous Growth Model ； Elasticity

參考文獻

Abdeen Mustafa Omer. Energy, environment and sustainable development. Renewable

Advanced Terrestrial Ecosystem Analysis and Modelling (ATEAM), 2004.

Aldy, J. E. (2006). Per capita carbon dioxide emissions convergence or divergence?

Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and

Aldy, J. E. (2007). Divergence in state-level per capita carbon dioxide emissions Land

國際替代計量

溫室氣體效應評估模型之建立與分析

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