影響台灣週轉金總體經濟因素之探討

Macroeconomic Determinants of Revolving Loans in Taiwan

周亞萱(Ya-Hsuan Chou)

指導教授 ： 謝德宗

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/經濟學研究所/碩士(2012年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2012.02431

摘要

在金融自由化衝擊下，金融產品日新月異，促使銀行不再是企業籌資的唯一管道。為在競爭日益激烈的金融市場中生存，銀行必須掌握資產管理關鍵，是以作為短期放款首要業務的週轉金借款值得關注。尋找何種金融市場因素影響銀行週轉金放款決策，進而影響銀行業務經營，以作為銀行資產管理參考，將是重要的討論議題。
本文首先針對各項解釋變數依總體經濟景氣、短期融資商品、企業營運狀況、市場資金水位及金融海嘯衝擊五大分類精簡實證模型。後續利用單根檢定、Granger因果關係檢定、VAR模型分析等計量方法針對各項總體經濟變數與銀行週轉金放款互動關係進行實證分析，俾以提供銀行作為掌握資產管理因素的參考。綜合本文實證結果可歸納出以下結論：
在實證模型中，全體銀行週轉金放款餘額受國內公司登記資本額、製造業銷售值、零售業營業額和批發業營業額具落後性顯著正向影響。顯示企業營運銷售狀況，須經過一定營業週期的反應時間，才帶動週轉金需求變動。全體銀行短期借款透支餘額亦具落後性顯著正向影響，顯示在短期資金需求旺盛的總體環境中，對企業來說，會先尋求銀行提供融資便利之短期借款透支以供應極短期臨時資金需求，再反映短期資金需求在其他融資商品上，是以全體銀行短期借款透支餘額的增加落後兩期才反應在全體銀行週轉金放款餘額的增加上。M2貨幣供給具顯著正向影響，顯示國內資金水位當期刺激全體銀行週轉金放款餘額變動。代表金融海嘯衝擊之虛擬變數為顯著負向影響，此現象反映當遭受金融海嘯波及時，總體環境衰退，銀行資金緊縮與企業接單下滑，使得全體銀行週轉金放款餘額下降。台灣加權股價指數和商業本票發行餘額之影響則為不顯著。

關鍵字

週轉金 ； 短期放款 ； 間接金融 ； 銀行資產管理

並列摘要

Financial instruments have shown diversified development trends under the impact of financial liberalization. Thus banks are no longer the only way to corporate financing. In order to survive in the financial market where competition becomes increasingly fierce, it is an important issue for the short-term business of banks to look for the factors that affect emergency-money loans.
This paper simplifies the empirical model with five categories: economic situations, short-term finance instruments, corporate operational situations, levels of capital, and the shocks to macro environment. Then we use three econometrics methods—unit root test, Granger causality test, and VAR model analysis—to construct an empirical analysis. Following conclusions are drawn from the results of this paper:
In the empirical analysis, it is found that emergency-money loans are positively correlated with the lagged variables of the total capital of recorded companies, bank overdrafts, manufacturing sales, wholesale trade amounts and retail trade amounts. It is shown that the changes of emergency-money loans follows those of corporate operational situations after two to four months, and corporations prefer bank overdrafts to emergency-money loans under the macro environment with strong short-term financing demands. M2 also has significant positive correlation with emergency-money loans, which means the level of capital has immediate impact on emergency-money loans. There is negative correlation between the impact of financial tsunami and the emergency-money loans. The decrease of emergency-money loans is accompanied by a fall in the corporate profit during the financial tsunami. There is no significant effect on emergency-money loans resulted from Taiwan stock weighted index and commercial paper.

並列關鍵字

emergency-money loans ； short-term loans ； indirect loans ； bank asset and liability management

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