智冠的基本價值分析

The Valuation of Soft-World International Corporation

陳奕如(Yi-Ju Chen)

指導教授 ： 許耀文

國立臺灣大學/管理學院/國際企業學研究所/碩士(2013年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2013.02327

摘要

2008年美國發生次級房貸風暴，進而引起全球性的經濟衰退，各種經濟活動皆受到嚴重的衝擊。在整體經濟情況惡劣的環境下，全球線上遊戲產業反而以每年10%以上的成長率穩定發展。擁有線上遊戲起源地韓國、經過長足發展的台灣香港、後起之秀擁有龐大線上人口的中國，亞太地區是目前全球線上遊戲市場中最活絡、成長最快的市場。
由MIC資策會的分析報告，2011年亞太地區線上遊戲市場已具有80億美元的市場規模，年成長率為11%，預估到2016年將達到130億美元。台灣線上遊戲的玩家數接近四百萬，市場規模約160億台幣，在2011年成長率為4.2%，預計2012至2014的成長率在4.8%。相較於中國近幾年來，線上遊戲產業一直維持在20%的成長率，目前台灣線上遊戲市場已邁入成熟期。
由於社群網站的興起，休閒及社交遊戲的規模快速成長，全球線上遊戲玩家數量持續的增長，跳脫出以往由年輕男性玩家為主角的市場。同時，行動平台的發展迅速，也讓遊戲市場的格局產生變化。以中國大陸遊戲市場為例，中國文化部2011年公佈的資料中指出，2011至2015年，預估手機線上遊戲的年複合成長率將會有52.8%。
智冠為國內經營線上遊戲產業最久、產業鏈最完整的公司。近幾年來積極的佈局，包括自行研發遊戲引擎「颱風引擎」、在南台灣開辦「音樂制作中心」及「動態擷取工作室」，一邊提高遊戲研發能力累積能量，結合台灣本土文化元素創造別樹一幟的遊戲進攻市場；一邊打造基礎建設謀求獨立作業節省授權費用支出，更推出My Card數位交易平台，顯示對於開拓市場的野心。
面對飽和的國內市場及蓬勃的中國市場、玩家構成的轉變以及新型遊戲平台：「行動遊戲平台」的興起，究竟智冠的前景如何？實際股權價值在哪裡？本研究從線上遊戲產業的發展開始，先了解線上遊戲產業的競爭情形及全球線上遊戲產業的趨勢，隨後再分析未來可能的變化，再以自由現金流量法估計智冠在現今的環境下，最保守的價值為何。
首先分析智冠集團投入發展行動遊戲產業，對智冠的影響，再以合理的方式計算其每股價值。分為兩個面向1.維持集團目前以MMOPRG遊戲為主的經營方式；2.子公司中華網龍將大部份產能投入發展行動遊戲，使其營收受到影響，無法溢注智冠母公司的價值。兩種情況下的股權價值，以投資報酬率折現分別得到，在維持現況的保守價值為每股115.56元，而在子公司中華網龍將大部份產能投入發展行動遊戲後，最保守的價值為每股83.12元。

關鍵字

遊戲產業 ； 智冠公司 ； 價值分析

並列摘要

The subprime mortgage crisis hit U.S. in 2008, and it further spread to the whole world, lasted for several years. Asset value, international trade, and economic activities were all being impacted. Under the difficult conditions in the overall economy, global online game industry still has steady annual growth rate of more than 10%. Asia is the most active and growing market：Korea is the origin of online game, Taiwan and Hong Kong are mature market through more thirty years development and China is a Comer and has a large population.
From the report of Market Intelligence & Consulting Institute (MIC), Asia-Pacific online game market has already had an $8 billion market size and an annual growth rate of 11%. The market size is estimated to reach a $13 billion market size in 2016. In Taiwan, there are nearly four million online gamers. Online game in Taiwan has NT16 billion market size growing by 4.2% growth rate in 2011. Market Intelligence & Consulting Institute (MIC) estimated that market size in Taiwan will grow by 4.8% in 2012-2014. Compared to the 20% growth rate of market size in China, the online game industry in Taiwan has been in state of maturity.
Because of the rise of Social Networking Service (SNS), the market size of casual game and social game has been fast-growing. It led the gamer’s range out of the young male market spread to more wide ages and female which made the world online game market gamers grow. In the same time, rapid development of the mobile platform made the online game market to be more complicated but undoubtedly growing. From the report published by Ministry of Culture of the People’s Republic of China in 2011, the mobile game has been estimated to have 52.8% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR).
Soft-world International Corporation is an online game company which has the most complete chain in Taiwan and it operate the business in online game industry for a long time. In recent years, Soft-world International Corporation shows vitality by research and develops the game engines by itself, set up the “Music Production Center” in the southern Taiwan and set up the “Motion Capture Studio”. For striving to create a unique identity for the game, Soft-world International Corporation improves game development capabilities and combines it with Taiwan local cultural elements. For attracting consumers and spreading market, Soft-world International Corporation launched the “My Card” digital transaction platform to provide convenience transaction way.
Face the situation with the saturated domestic market, the booming China market, the new gamers’ constitution and the rise of new game platform” Mobile game platform”, what are the prospects for Soft-world International Corporation? What is the actual equity value of Soft-world International Corporation? In this thesis, I try to understand the online game industry by surveying the competitive situation and trend of the global online game industry. By the analysis of possible future changes, I will use the Discounted Cash Flow Method to estimate the most conservative values of Soft-world International Corporation at present.
In this thesis, I will analyze the stock value of Soft-world International Corporation under the following situations: Firstly, Soft-world International Corporation group maintain currently MMOPRG game-based mode of operation. Secondly, Chinesegamer International Corporation the subsidiary of Soft-world International Corporation puts its most of production capacity into developing mobile games, so revenues will be affected to overflow Soft-world International Corporation. Under the status which maintain the currently mode of operation, it has the most conservative value of NT115.56 per share; but in the situation of a little revenues overflow from Chinesegamer International Corporation has been eliminated the most conservative value of NT83.12 per share.

並列關鍵字

Online Game Industry ； Soft-world International Corporation ； Valuation Analysis

參考文獻

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