農作物保險的實證分析—以臺灣水稻保險為例

極端氣候對臺灣農業造成之衝擊日益嚴重，農作物損失金額於2017年已達273億元，創下近20年來的歷史新高，過去政府主要透過災害救助的方式對農民進行直接補償，協助農民能於災後迅速復建復耕，然而政府所發放的天然災害現金救助金額逐年增加，已超過政府所編列之預算，為有效因應天然災害對於農作物之衝擊，並兼顧政府財政負擔及農民權益的保障，臺灣於2015年11月開始實施農業作物保險制度。政府持續開發農作物保險品項，目前已開辦之農作物保單包含梨、芒果、水稻、釋迦等，但試辦至今各保單之投保覆蓋率仍低，顯示大部分的農民依舊不願意參與農業保險。過去許多文獻著重探討影響農民參與農業保險之因素，較少針對特定農作物保險進行實證分析，而臺灣農業保險制度開辦時間晚，對於相關文獻更是缺乏，有鑑於此，本研究欲利用臺灣水稻保險個別保單資料，探討影響稻作農民參與水稻保險之因素，並以普通最小平方法與分量迴歸模型，分析政府政策之成效以及對於稻農決策之影響程度。實證結果顯示，政府的保險費補助政策以及過去採行的天然災害現金救助，皆對於稻農投保意願有顯著正向影響，其他農業相關政策如統一農業貸款與農業發展基金貸款也會正向影響稻農投保之意願，此外，投保較大面積之稻農，受到過去參與保險獲得理賠與否的影響越顯著；而農戶特徵方面，則會因為不同水稻期作之差異而對於稻農投保意願有不同的影響效果。經由實證結果，本研究建議政府可對於投保一定規模之稻農提高保費補助比例，以提高水稻保險之覆蓋率；再者，政府應針對理賠基準及保險費率做定期的調整，以保障農民未來因極端氣候加劇可能承受之更嚴重的損失。

關鍵字

農業作物保險；臺灣水稻保險；保險費補助；天然災害救助；分量迴歸

並列摘要

The impact of extreme climate on Taiwan's agriculture has become increasingly serious. The amount of crop losses has reached 27.3 billion dollars in 2017, the highest record in the past 20 years. In the past, the government directly compensated farmers through disaster relief and assisted farmers re-construct and re-cultivate as soon as possible in the aftermath of disasters. However, the amount of natural disaster cash relief issued by the government has increased year by year, exceeding the budget set. In order to effectively respond to the impact of natural disasters on crops, and to take into account the government’s financial burden and the protection of farmers’ right, The Taiwan agricultural crop insurance system was implemented in November, 2015. The government actively develop different kinds of crop insurance products. The current crop insurance policies include pears, mangoes, rice, and custard apples. However, the coverage of each insurance has remained low, indicating that most farmers are still reluctant to participate in agricultural insurance. In the past, many literatures focused on the factors affecting farmers' participation in agricultural insurance, and less empirical analysis on specific crop insurance. The Taiwan agricultural insurance system was launched late and was lacking in relevant literatures as well. Therefore, this study aims to use Taiwan rice insurance data to explore the factors affecting rice farmers' participation in rice insurance, and analyze the effectiveness of government policies and the impact on rice farmers' decision-making by ordinary least squares method and quantile regression model. The empirical results show that the government's insurance subsidy policy and the natural disaster cash relief adopted in the past have a significant and positive impact on rice farmers' willingness to insure. Other agricultural-related policies such as unified agricultural loans and agricultural development fund loans will also have a positive impact. In addition, the rice farmers who are insured for a larger area are more affected by the claims obtained in the past participation in the insurance. However, the characteristics of farm households are different because of the differences in rice production. Based on the empirical results, this study suggests that the government could increase the proportion of subsidies for rice farmers with a certain size of farmland to increase the coverage rate of rice insurance; in addition, the government should make regular adjustments to the standard of claim and the insurance rates to prevent the future disaster loss from extreme weather of farmers.