人民幣作為國際儲備貨幣之前景分析—基於社會經濟發展程度觀點

本研究分析影響一國貨幣占國際儲備貨幣份額之重要因素，並以估算模型對各國貨幣之國際儲備貨幣份額進行情境模擬。本研究主要貢獻有兩點，首先，透過考量國家制度面因素，加入對財產權的保障作為代理變數，本研究得以更全面分析人民幣作為國際儲備貨幣前景；其次，本研究模型分別取樣自1976年至2018年、1995年至2018年，透過比較，本文發現經濟規模對國際儲備貨幣份額的影響隨取樣時間不同發生大幅變化；而國際貨幣使用慣性則在不同樣本期間皆發揮幾乎同等的影響力。過去分析人民幣作為國際儲備貨幣之文獻，多未考量中國社會經濟發展不均衡的特殊性；僅少數研究指出國家制度環境及經濟自由度亦為影響人民幣成為國際儲備貨幣的關鍵因素。本研究成功證明對財產權的保障之於國際儲備貨幣份額的影響具統計顯著性，並利用估計模型進行情境模擬，發現人民幣能否超越、何時超越日圓，成為世界第三大國際儲備貨幣，財產權的保障扮演至關重要角色。另外，本研究利用相同研究對象、不同樣本期間分別建立模型，發現國際貨幣使用慣性在不同樣本期間皆發揮幾乎同等效力，其影響顯著且高度正向，說明對於有潛力崛起、國際化的貨幣而言，當今發展成熟的國際貨幣具備相當程度優勢；同時，隨模型樣本期間越接近現代，經濟規模對國際儲備貨幣份額的影響越低。中國欲推動人民幣成為國際儲備貨幣，最重要的因素是其自身條件改善，包括完善金融市場發展、完成金融改革以利資本帳戶開放，及加強對財產權的保障，全面提升國家的法治、政府廉潔程度等。若中國無法改善國家制度面因素以增加人民幣對各國的吸引力，則根據本文分析，即使人民幣能超越日圓成為世界第三大國際儲備貨幣，其影響力仍將大幅低於美元及歐元。

關鍵字

國際儲備貨幣；人民幣；情境模擬；國境貨幣慣性；社經發展程度

並列摘要

This paper estimates the determinants of the shares of major currencies in the reserve holdings of the world’s central banks and performs scenario analysis. Two major contributions are provided. Firstly, this paper successfully proves the significance of “Property rights” as a major determinant of the reserve shares. It provides more thorough prospects of Renminbi by taking socio-economic development and institutional factors into account. Secondly, it finds out the effects of inertia are equally high and positive during different period of time；while the effects of economic size differ greatly. While previous studies focused on the developed countries, this paper aims to illustrate the asymmetry between economic growth and socio-economic development of China. It shows that whether and when will Renminbi eventually surpass Japanese yen would be contingent on the progress of Chinese socio-economic development. Despite having been included in the SDR in 2016, the evolution from within would be more important when it comes to the prospects of Renminbi as an international reserve currency. Significant factors include well-developed financial markets, reform in the financial sector, capital account openness and well-enforced property rights. If China can’t improve its institutional environment to attract foreign investors from both private and public sector, then even it might surpass the Japanese yen to become the third largest international reserve currency, it would still be far less influential than US dollars and euro.