農業氣象災害對芒果產量之影響與調適策略

氣候變遷對人類社會的影響日漸顯著，其中以農業直接關係著人類的生存，而如何保持農業產量的穩定性與持續性是農業發展的核心目標。本研究主要為評估農業氣象災害對芒果產量的影響，芒果為我國果品產值第四名，平均年產值約70 億元，目前總栽培面積16,109公頃，總產量146,672公噸，極具國際競爭力。因此，蒐集臺南、高雄及屏東三縣市自民國78年起至民國107年止共30年90筆的資料，建立芒果的損失函數，探討影響芒果產量的主要氣象因子。並可針對農業氣象災害發生前進行損失預測，了解可能的衝擊強弱及來源，從計量分析發現「2月溫度」、「4月溫度」、「12月溫度」、「1月雨量」、「2月雨量」、「5月雨量」、「12月氣壓」及「12月風速」等8項氣象變數，對芒果的損失產量有顯著影響，使芒果產量具備建立定量管理的依據。研究結果也顯示，芒果開花期為生育周期中之高風險期，在此期間對溫度及雨量極為敏感，並造成延遲性致災，故必須從建立承災能力、災前防範及災後保險，建構完整芒果氣候災害調適能力。由於氣象災害發生的時點、頻率及強度分布具有高度的不確定性，影響作物產量的風險因子也很多，因此，未來政府在輔導農民因應氣象災害時，可先透過風險評估以及風險地圖的繪製，掌握作物風險的分布狀況與了解可能的衝擊來源，再提出具有永續思維的調適策略來因應，例如調節產期、品種多樣性、推動設施農業、加強灌溉排水設施、推動天氣指數型農業保險、提升延遲性致災通報能力等。

關鍵字

氣候變遷；追蹤資料；損失函數；彈性；農業保險

並列摘要

The impact of climate change on human society has become increasingly significant. Among them, agriculture is directly related to human survival, and how to maintain the stability and sustainability of agricultural productivity is the primary goal of agricultural development. This study is mainly to assess the impact of agricultural meteorological disasters on mango production. Mango is the fourth largest fruit product in Taiwan, with an average annual output value of 7 billion NTD. At present, the total cultivation area is 16,109 hectares, and the total production is 146,672 metric tons, which is highly competitive internationally. In this study, a total of 90 observations from 1989 to 2018 were used to estimate the mango loss function. The loss function can be used to predict the losses before the occurrence of agro-meteorological disasters and to understand the extent and sources of the possible impact. The results indicated that "February temperature", "April temperature", "December temperature", "January rainfall", "February rainfall", "May rainfall", "December air pressure", and "December wind speed" are 8 meteorological variables having significant impact on the losses and can be used as the basis for quantitative management of mango production. We also find that the flowering stage is a high-risk period in mango’s growth cycle. During this stage, it’s extremely sensitive to temperature and rainfall anomaly and the impact may be postponed to a later stage losses. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen the capacity of mango farmers in using weather forecasting information to improve their resilience and adaptation to climate-related disasters. The risk management strategies include: gaining access to adaptation information and new technologies, adjusting production period, diversifying mango varieties, adopting facility agriculture and greenhouses, promoting weather index agricultural insurance, and improving the capacity to monitor and notify the delayed disasters.