- 學位論文
潛在大型航空客運樞紐城市預測之研究
A Study on Forecasting Potential Primary Hub Cities for Air Passenger Transport
摘要
航空客運樞紐的重要性除了能帶動所在城市的經濟持續發展之外，同時也是整個國家發展的重要基礎。而一個大型航空客運樞紐城市的形成，必有一股強大的力量在推動，除了主觀意識影響之外，也有該城市先天客觀條件的優勢造就其發展。因此探討何種因素影響大型航空客運樞紐城市形成，為本研究所要探討課題。本研究以美國為研究基礎對象，利用二元羅吉特模式分析其大型航空客運樞紐城市的客觀可量化條件影響因素，並以歐洲地區作為實例驗證，最後將結果運用至中國大陸地區。而結果顯示，除了都會區人口條件以及經濟所得條件是影響大型樞紐城市形成原因之外，觀光資源也是主因之ㄧ。再透過模式更新方式進行時間與空間上之實例驗證，並利用可移轉性統計檢定方法加以判斷，模式是否具可移轉性。結果發現，在時間移轉部份，以結合移轉性估計法或貝氏更新法移轉效果較佳，在空間上移轉，則以修正方案特定常數與參數尺度法最佳。在預測中國大陸2005年之潛在大型航空客運樞紐城市部分，本研究透過模式預測之結果共有6個，依序分別為上海、北京、廣州、深圳、杭州、天津。至於2010年之大型航空客運樞紐城市部分，預測可能10個排名順序之城市，依序為上海、北京、廣州、深圳、杭州、天津、成都、南京、武漢、大連。本研究結果可提供相關單位在預測中國大陸未來大型航空客運樞紐城市時之參考。
並列摘要
Air hub can not only stimulate the consistently economical development of the city where the hub is located, but also is the foundation of whole national development. A formation of a large-hub primary city for air passenger transport certainly has an enormous power pushing behind. In addition to the influence of subjective consciousness of the city itself, it also has some advantages to speed this formationt. It is therefore our main purpose to investigate Scalable factors influencing the formation of large-hub primary city for air passenger transport in the United States by using binary logit models. The results show that metropolitan population and Gross Domestic Product are two significant factors that influence the large-hub primary city formation. Tourist resource also is one of the main factors. Finally, updating techniques are carried out to perform the investigation of time and space effects, and measures of transferability are used to judge whether models can be transferred either in time or space. The results show that for temporal transferability, the best method is combined transfer estimation and Bayesian updating. For spatial transferability, the best method is corrected alternative specific constants and the parameter scaling. Be evaluating China potential large-hub primary city for air passenger transport of 2005, the research shows that 6 cities are Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hangzhou and Tienjin. Respectively, the potential large-hub primary city for air passenger transport of 2010, evaluate possible have 10 cities, include Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Tienjin, Chengdu, Nanking, Wuha, and Dalian. The results obtained from this study can provide a reference on how large-hub primary city for air passenger transport is forming.