探討應用NCEP再分析資料於CALMET模式模擬對台灣地區風場之影響

The effect on adding NCEP reanalysis data to simulate wind field in Taiwan region by using CALMET model

李仁裕(Ren-Yu Li)

指導教授 ： 張能復

國立臺灣大學/工學院/環境工程學研究所/碩士(2011年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2011.02711

摘要

在過去未使用海上監測站的監測資料，本研究係應用NCEP(Nation Center Environment of Prediction)再分析氣象資料提供模式模擬邊界上之虛擬測站資料，以彌補資料不足的問題。
本研究係探討應用NCEP再分析資料於CALMET模式模擬對台灣地區風場之影響，進行四部分的比較工作，一是在模式模擬風場方面，分成水平與垂直風場的模擬進行比較，二是在進行模式模擬風速與風向的驗證，與環保署＆中央氣象局測站實際監測資料進行比對，為了更了解模式模擬的準確性，在第三部分則進行誤差與相關性的分析，最後則是進行順軌跡的分析，藉以了解加入與未加入NCEP氣象資料模擬結果之軌跡分析上之差異。
在風場模擬部分，近地層之水平風場模擬，主要影響模擬邊界附近海上之風場，在本島地區之風場影響不大，而在垂直風場的部分，在垂直風場的模擬上，越山與下沉的情形則變得不明顯。在模式模擬風速與風向之驗證中，CALMET模式模擬之風速在大部分的時間而言，在離島地區測站模擬結果較本島地區測站模擬結果符合實際監測結果。對本島地區的台北測站模擬結果而言，較不符合實際測站的觀測資料。在風向上，最大的差異位置是在模擬邊界附近的風向。在誤差與相關性分析中，本研究不建議使用可變掃描半徑進行台灣地區的風場之模擬，最後第五組使用之掃描半徑，適合做台灣本島地區與離島地區風場之模擬控制參數。在順軌跡分析中，軌跡線走向差異極大，將會影響污染物傳輸路徑的判別。

關鍵字

NCEP ； CALMET ； 順軌跡

並列摘要

For the overwater stations data not to use in the past, this study applied NCEP (Nation Center Environment of Prediction) reanalysis data to treat as the model simulations date of virtuals station on the boundary.
This study explored the application of the NCEP reanalysis data in the CALMET model simulations of the impact of wind field in Taiwan region. There compared to four-part work. In the first the study simulate wind field which divided into horizontal and vertical wind field. The second part is compare simulation results with EPA & CWB stations actual monitoring data. In order to understand the accuracy of model simulations, in the third part is the error and correlation analysis. It allows researcher to understand how the error analysis and add NCEP reanalysis data to effect wind field simulation in Taiwan region. The last part is the forward trajectory analysis. In order to understand the divergence in added NCEP reanalysis data simulation results of forward trajectory analysis.
In the simulation of the wind field, near-surface layer of the horizontal wind field simulation mainly effects of simulated wind field near the simulation boundary of the sea. In the island region of the wind field affected slightly. In the vertical wind field, it becomes obvious that the case with the sinking of the mountain.
In the simulation result of the validation, CALMET model simulated wind speed which conform to reality the monitor results in the off-shore islands in most of the time. It is less conform to reality the monitor results for simulation results in the Taipei station. In the wind direction simulation, the biggest difference is the location near the simulation boundary of the sea. In error and correlation analysis, this study does not recommend to use of variable-sweep radius of Taiwan simulated wind field. The fifth group in this study to use the scanning radius which suitable to treat as simulation control parameters for Taiwan Island and the outlying islands of the wind field simulate. Finally, the forward trajectory analysis result which the path is very distinct, it will affect to distinguish the transmission path of the pollutants.

並列關鍵字

NCEP ； CALMET ； forward trajectory

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