探討台灣地區地震危害度分析中強地動衰減式認知不確定性之可適用範圍

Ground Motion Prediction Equations and Discussions on the Technically Defensible Range of GMPE Epistemic Uncertainty for PHSA in Region of Taiwan

馮文龐(Van-Bang Phung)

指導教授 ： 羅俊雄

國立臺灣大學/工學院/土木工程學研究所/博士(2018年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU201900178

摘要

In probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), the standard practice is to select a set of appropriate GMPEs and assign weights on the logic tree, especially for regions where strong motion data are sparse and where no indigenous GMPE exists. Subjectively assigning weights to a set of models usually has the disadvantage of not obtaining mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive models because of sparse or unavailable data. Therefore, the development of logic tree weightings in PSHA remains a major challenge. The objective of this thesis is to develop GMC models that capture the center body and range (CBR) of the technically defensible interpretation (TDI) of ground motion model distribution with their weighting for use in PSHA studies under the framework of SSHAC level 3 project. This study focuses on the development GMPE either for crustal source or subduction source and the development of the median weight on the logic tree for PHSA in Taiwan.

關鍵字

地震危害度分析 ； 強地動預估模式 ； 邏輯樹之權重 ； 隨機模型

並列摘要

In probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), the standard practice is to select a set of appropriate GMPEs and assign weights on the logic tree, especially for regions where strong motion data are sparse and where no indigenous GMPE exists. Subjectively assigning weights to a set of models usually has the disadvantage of not obtaining mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive models because of sparse or unavailable data. Therefore, the development of logic tree weightings in PSHA remains a major challenge. The objective of this thesis is to develop GMC models that capture the center body and range (CBR) of the technically defensible interpretation (TDI) of ground motion model distribution with their weighting for use in PSHA studies under the framework of SSHAC level 3 project. This study focuses on the development GMPE either for crustal source or subduction source and the development of the median weight on the logic tree for PHSA in Taiwan.

並列關鍵字

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis ； Ground Motion Prediction Equation ； Logic Tree Weights ； Random Model

參考文獻

Abrahamson, N. A., Al Atik, L., Bayless, J., Bayless, A., Douglas, S. D., Gregor, N., … Youngs, R. R. (2015). Southwestern United States Ground Motion Characterization SSHAC Level 3 – Technical Report Rev.2.

Abrahamson, N. A., Silva, W. J., & Kamai, R. (2014). Summary of the ASK14 Ground Motion Relation for Active Crustal Regions. Earthquake Spectra, 30(3), 1025–1055. https://doi.org/10.1193/070913EQS198M

Abrahamson, N. A., & Youngs, R. R. (1992). A stable algorithm for regression analyses using the random effects model. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 82(1), 505–510.

Abrahamson, N., Gregor, N., & Addo, K. (2015). BC Hydro Ground Motion Prediction Equations for Subduction Earthquakes. Earthquake Spectra, 32(1), 23–44. https://doi.org/10.1193/051712EQS188MR

Akkar, S., Sandıkkaya, M. A., & Bommer, J. J. (2014). Empirical ground-motion models for point- and extended-source crustal earthquake scenarios in Europe and the Middle East. Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, 12(1), 359–387. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-013-9461-4