台灣上市公司財務比率加入治理因素之預警模式探討

An Empirical Examination of An Early Warning Model Over Financial Crisis By Embodying Financial Ratios And Governing Factors

黃興陽(Shin-Yang Huang)

指導教授 ： 葉疏

國立臺灣大學/管理學院/會計學研究所/碩士(2004年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2004.01445

摘要

本論文之研究背景與動機是以筆者主持公司經營管理經驗及觀察，進一步察覺出治理制度的不健全而導致企業發生財務危機或企業失敗等嚴重問題，因此建立一套財務比率加入治理因素的預警模式，以事先偵測發生財務危機的問題所在，為本論文研究之核心。其本論文是以民國88年到90年之間國內上市公司為主，探討上市公司中，正常公司與危機公司兩群體之財務比率與公司治理因素之相關聯性，以瞭解上市公司是否因個人利益而遭受不必要的干預，導致發生變更交易，使得公司面臨財務危機。
在第二章文獻中探討財務危機的定義，以及財務危機之應用統計方法的發展，由最早的單變量分析、多變量分析到二元迴歸分析加以解釋說明；同時也探討代理理論相關問題及董事會及監察人之角色、功能與組成等。於第三章研究設計中，本論文採45家上市公司做研究樣本；其危機公司15家，正常公司30家，以1：2的樣本比例，彙總出圖表，推論出相關假說。並以二元迴歸Logit模式進行統計分析，以驗證假說是否成立。
最後結論，根據實證結果發現，不含治理因素之純財務變數所建立之模式的正確區別率，比含有治理因素所建立之模式的正確區別率小，故含有治理因素所建立財務危機預警模式之正確性較佳。董事長兼任總經理與財務危機發生機率呈正相關；董監事持股比率與財務危機發生機率呈負相關；董監事持股質押成數與財務危機發生機率呈正相關。

關鍵字

治理預警模式

並列摘要

It’s generally observed that an enterprise that messes up the corporate governance could sooner or later lead itself to financially woes or bankruptcy. Therefore, the the paper is making an attempt to establish an early warning mode combining some financial ratios with some corporate governing factors to predict whether a target company would fail.

The paper studying the companies listed in Taiwan Stock Exchange Board and their operations during 1999 and 2001, exploring the corresponding relations over financial factors as well as governing factors between the two groups, one that of normal companies and the other of the crisis companies, tries to learn whether a listed company is being driven to failure due to the unchecked improper interventions by the top corporate leaders from their self interests.

Chapter II explores the definition of the financial crisis, the evolutions of the statistical methods used for analyzing financial crisis – from the early single variable analysis, multi-variable analysis to the double element regression; as well the agency problems, the roles of the Board and Auditors, their functions and compositions. Chapter III devises the research over a sample of forty-five listed companies, fifteen in crisis state and thirty in normal state, that uses the 1:2 match for a comparison of their corresponding factors to introduce four assumptions that followed with the statistical analysis of the Logit mode, an two-element regression, to verify the assumptions.

The conclusion, based on the empirical findings, shows the early warning mode containing only financial ratios has the poorer ability to distinguish the given companies, being normal or critical in the sample, than the mode that contains both financial ratios as well as governing factors - a proof that the early warning mode with the additional governing factors is better in accuracy.

並列關鍵字

governing factor

參考文獻

9.林烱垚，財務管理－理論與實務，華泰書局，民國79年2月。

23.陳隆麒，當代財務管理，華泰文化事業股份有限公司，民國88年1月。

31.會計研究月刊編輯部，「「如何發揮監察人對公司業務與內控監督功能研討會」紀實」，會計研究月刊，第161期，民國88年4月。

1.Altman E.I. , "Financial Ratio, Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy" , Journal of Finance, September 1968, pp589-609

2.Beaver W.H. , "Alternative Accounting Measures As Predictors of Failure" , Accounting Review, January , 1968, pp113-122