年金險之延壽風險

The Longevity Risk of Annuity

陳建彰(Jian-Jhang Chen)

指導教授 ： 周國端

國立臺灣大學/管理學院/財務金融學研究所/碩士(2006年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2006.01722

摘要

死亡率風險(Mortality Risk)是壽險業除利率風險外所面臨另一重大課題，尤其以年金險而言，非預期的壽命延長將造成精算保費低估，使保險公司承受保費不足以支付未來理賠的風險，此亦稱為長命風險(Longevity Risk)。本文將採用美國學者Lee和Carter於1992年所發展的模型與英國壽險協會所提出的CMI模型，推估台灣未來死亡率之趨勢，並針對壽險業所銷售之年金險作保費試算，以衡量保險公司所面臨的死亡風險。

關鍵字

Lee-Carter模型 ； CMI模型 ； 年金生命表 ； 第四回經驗生命

並列摘要

Besides interest risk, mortality risk is the other important issue that the insurers confront. Take annuitant for example, unexpected life extension will cause underestimation on actuarial premium and insurers thus take the risk that the premium is not able to pay the benefit. It is also called the Longevity Risk. This study uses Lee-Carter model and CMI model to predict the trend of the mortality rate in Taiwan, calculate the annuity premiums for the sale of the insurance company and evaluate the mortality risk faced by insurer.

並列關鍵字

Lee-Carter Model ； CMI Model ； Life table

參考文獻

Brouhns, N., Denuit, M., Vermunt, J.K., 2002a. A Poisson log-bilinear approach to the construction of projected lifetables. Insurance：Mathematics and Economics 31 (3), 373-393.

Buettner, T., 2002. Approaches and experiences in projecting mortality patterns for the oldest-old. North American Actuarial Journal 6 (3), 14-25.

CMIR16 (Continuous Mortality Investigation Reports), 1998. Institute of Actuaries and Faculty of Actuaries.

CMIR17 (Continuous Mortality Investigation Reports), 1999. Institute of Actuaries and Faculty of Actuaries.

Lee, R.D., 2000. The Lee-Carter method for forecasting mortality, with various extensions and applications. North American Actuarial Journal 4 (1), 80-93.