房價與內部遷徙：以1986-1996年臺北市為例

本篇論文從臺閩地區人口統計之資料中發現，臺北市從1980年代中葉至1990年代中葉發生高負社會增加率現象，而這段時期正好是臺北市住宅價格飆漲之時期。因此本文建構一個考慮房價與人口遷徙之三期跨期疊代模型，將模型透過官方統計及文獻資料校準於1986年及1996年之經濟狀態，並評估房價對於人口動態及經濟決策之影響。此外本篇利用抑制房價政策實驗評估有效控制房價是否能改變臺北市民決策行為，發現高強度政策才有可能轉變遷徙及生育決策，低強度控制房價政策只會改變市民之消費及儲蓄行為。抑制房價政策，對留在臺北市的族群而言是效用提升之政策，但越高強度的政策將會造成更大的貧富差距。此外，雖然抑制房價政策能夠改善部分民眾之福祉，但對整體社會而言確有可能減緩經濟之成長，因此該政策並非對經濟全體受益。

關鍵字

人口學；內部遷徙；房價；跨期疊代模型；生活成本；模擬校準

並列摘要

Exploring demographic statistics of Taipei city, we found an intriguing phenomenon about the positive association between rising out-migration rate and soaring housing price from the mid-1980s to mid-1990s. Hence, a three-period Overlapping-Generations Model with housing price and migration decision is established to investigate the impact of real estate price on decision-making of Taipei citizens. The model is calibrated to data from Taiwan, solved as steady states in 1986 and 1996, and then a policy experiment is conducted to scrutinize the effectiveness of restraining housing price. The simulation results indicate that saving and consumption behaviors will be affected by the decline of housing price, but fertility and migration decisions will be altered only when the housing price drops significantly. Additionally, regardless of which intensity levels of policy enacted, lower housing price leads to the improvement of some individuals' welfare. Nevertheless, policy of restraining housing price may impede economic growth and widen disparities of wealth between the rich and the poor. Therefore, policy of restraining housing price is a double-edged sword.