我國四種再生能源產業的發展策略探討

A Study on Developing Strategies for Our Country's Industries in Four Kinds of Renewable Energies

李宗德(Tzong-Te Lee)

指導教授 ： 陳家聲

國立臺灣大學/管理學院/商學組/碩士(2007年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2007.01839

摘要

全球能源產業近年來受化石燃料價格飆漲、儲存量逐漸匱乏、京都議定書正式生效對溫室氣體排放限制等情勢影響而發生劇烈變動，各主要工業國皆積極開發替代能源如風能、太陽能、生質能、氫能等四種再生能源，並已有突破性的成果。我國總能源需求超過97%需仰賴進口化石燃料供應，面臨此嚴峻的國際能源變革情勢，更應積極發展再生能源以降低對化石燃料的依賴度、維持國家能源安全、持續經濟成長並提升國家競爭力。
預測資料顯示全球四種再生能源產業在未來至少二十年的發展都將深具潛力。2007年至2020年全球風力發電產業累計總產值將達9,586.59億美元，複合年平均成長率高達21.306%；2015年全球太陽能光電產業總產值將擴增至1,299.57億美元，2005年至2010年平均成長率將高達30.011%，2010年至2015年平均成長率預估也有16.326%；2015年全球生質能產業總產值預計將提升至525億美元，2005年至2015年複合年平均成長率預測將有12.83%；2005年全球燃料電池產業產值雖僅5.36億美元，但預測2015年將迅速擴增至188.75億美元，2005年至2010年複合年平均成長率將高達47.0%，2010年至2015年仍有年平均39.3%的高幅度成長率。
本研究首先分別就我國風力發電、太陽能光電、生質能及燃料電池等四種再生能源產業的內部資源及外部環境做SWOT分析，並探討這些個別再生能源產業的關鍵成功要素。我國這幾種再生能源產業在全球競爭市場中都屬於後進者，皆須仰賴政府訂定政策予以輔導、獎勵或補助，除了降低產業投入風險，並可快速縮短與外國先進者間之技術功能落差，期能在全球產業競爭中儘早取得優勢。
個別再生能源產業因產業特性及環境不同而有其個別之發展條件，本研究基於此原則擬訂個別再生能源產業發展策略應較切合實際。我國風力發電產業可順應全球發展趨勢，朝向發展區域微型風力發電系統開發與整廠服務、跨入國際風力發電市場並將設備標準化以降低成本等策略。我國太陽能光電產業可考量垂直整合以掌握料源並降低成本、以差異化擴增產品附加價值及客製化能力、加速開發薄膜PV替代品以降低風險及成本等策略；我國生質能產業可專注於建立以提煉生質燃料為導向的生產體系、並將生質燃料行銷國際化等策略。我國燃料電池產業除先引進國外先進者技術外，可結合國內已佔有全球優勢的關聯產業如資訊通訊電子產業、或與外國小型發電機及汽車等大廠合作達成垂直整合以擴增產能、行銷國際化及降低成本，並以提升設計研發能力、加強創新及客製化能力、提高產品附加價值之差異化策略擴大行銷及服務。
本研究除了擬訂我國個別再生能源產業發展策略提供產業界參考外，最後並依據我國內部資源及外部環境等因素再擬訂這四種再生能源產業發展的優先順序建議如下：太陽能光電產業建議可為最優先考量發展的產業，燃料電池中的直接甲醇燃料電池產業則可考量為次優先發展產業，其次為風力發電產業、其他燃料電池如質子交換膜燃料電池產業等、生質能產業。

關鍵字

化石燃料 ； 再生能源 ； 產業發展策略 ； 風能 ； 太陽能光電 ； 生質能 ； 燃料電池 ； 產業發展優先順序

並列摘要

It is really vital to a country to get enough energy to keep developing various industries. But it is easy to find that usable energies worsen such as raising price, shortening fossil fuels and getting serious influences from the Kyoto Protocol on tackling climate change recently. Therefore, essential worldwide countries have been persistently generating substitute of energy. The replaced has been cultivated in a special progressive performance, especially, on four kinds of renewable energies such as wind energy, photovoltaic energy, biomass energy and hydrogen energy. Our country has been depending on an import of energies more than 97% of fossil fuels totally. It is imperative to overcome so tough nationwide circumstances of abroad energy supply by developing renewable energies. Then, it is able to prevent energies from shortage, to perform economic growth, and to promote competition at international markets.
It is recorded that the global industries relating to renewable energies have been booming at least twenty years. From 2007 to 2020, it is estimated that the total productive value of the generative industries in global wind energy is about US$9,586.59 hundred million. Its compound average of productive value yearly is 21.306%. In 2015, it will be estimated that the total productive value of the photovoltaic industries in global solar energy will be US$1,299.57 hundred million. From 2005 to 2010, its high growth average yearly is 30.011%. From 2010 to 2015, it will be estimated that its total productive value of growth average yearly will be 16.326%. In 2015, the total productive value in the industries of biomass energy yearly will be US$525 hundred million. Then from 2005 to 2015, its compound growth average yearly is 12.83%. In 2005, the total productive value in the industries of the global fuel cells yearly is about US$5.36 hundred million. In 2015, it will be estimated to be US$188.75 hundred million rapidly. From 2005 to 2010, its growth average yearly is 47.0% even, and 2010 to 2015, its high growth range yearly will be 39.3%.
First, the research is made to the inner resources and outer environments in the industries of the four renewable energies through SWOT analysis of industries in our country. Second, it discusses that the key factors develop their relative industries successfully. It is obvious that the development of the four renewable energies in our country is much later in the world. Therefore, it has to depend on the government’s settling practical strategies to nourish, to subsidize, and to support the investors of industries for decreasing risk and solving obstruction. Otherwise, it has to accelerate to prevent the difference from the abroad forerunners’ technology and to catch up with. Then our country will be able to benefit from a global competition earlier.
There are different characteristics, environments, and circumstances of developing the industries of distinct renewable energies. That the research is based on to stratify is more realistic. Developing nationwide power industries of wind energy, it is suggested to confirm global trends. Also, it is strategic to develop an area or a micro power system and a service of a whole plant, and to contact the international market to make equipment standardized to decrease cost…etc. Developing national photovoltaic industries of solar energy, it is suggested to be strategic to adopt vertical integration to manage resources for cost reduce, to perform the strategies of differentiation and customization to broaden additional value of product, to accelerate in developing thin film patterns of PV substitute to decrease risk and cost…etc. Developing biomass energy, it is suggested to focus on offering biomass fuel refined to sell at the international market for renewing and replacing the old manufacturing system by importing international technology. Developing energy of fuel cell, it is suggested to plug in abroad forerunner’s key technology; furthermore, it should unify relative and essential portable products industries of our country such as the electronic industries of information and communication. Or it should vertically cooperate with essential large abroad company about micro-type generators and cars to increase productivity, to develop sale internationalization, and to reduce cost. Moreover, it should promote R&D function, strengthen innovative and customized ability, heighten additional value of product, and broaden sale and service.
This study would make a reference for the industries relating to planning the development of various renewable energies. Finally, it is based on the inner resources and the outer environments of our country to strategy the priority of the four kinds of renewable energies. It is suggested that photovoltaic industry would be the first to develop, and the industry of direct methanol fuel cell be the secondary. The industry of wind energy would be the third; then the other fuel cells such as the industry of proton exchange membrane fuel cell and biomass energy would follow.

並列關鍵字

Fossil Fuel ； Renewable energy ； Strategies for developing industries ； Wind energy ； Photovoltaic energy ； Biomass energy ； Fuel cell ； Priority of industry development.

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