臺灣房價與總體因素及政策之關聯性分析

近年來臺灣高房價現象已成為社會議題，尤其在台北市甚為明顯。過高房價成為眾多人口移入都市定居之阻礙。自2008年金融危機後，我國主管機關為達穩定房市目的，實行一系列房地產管制措施。有鑑於房價長期會受到總體因素影響，以及相關政策施行而有所波動，本研究以不同所得水準，包含六都在內共十縣市之房價，以及不動產業者之房價指數進行分析，欲探討房價是否確實受到總體因素及政策所影響，及其影響結果。經實證顯示，不同地區所得變動情形確實對於房價變化率有顯著影響，可推論為平均所得最高之台北市房價較高原因之一；而購屋貸款成數變動亦為影響房價之因素，因可貸款金額所產生之資金壓力將影響購屋意願。另外，針對房地產相關政策，稅賦措施於本研究中未見其顯著效果，推論因稅賦種類繁雜存在相互影響關係，及消費者購屋目的不同，導致其預期心理與行為相異而未能有效反應。而不動產信用管制措施則於六都地區新屋市場顯現出成效，可知在包含許多豪宅交易之六都新屋市場，針對高價住宅抑或第2戶貸款成數限制，信用管制措施確實有抑制投資行為之成效。然而，在當今所得分配越趨不均下，資金充沛者無貸款需求，投資人亦可長期持有房屋以降低房地合一稅額，使上述措施難以長期穩定房價。因此，本研究建議，針對未加以使用住宅之持有者加徵空屋稅收，期能降低所得分配不均所衍生居住正義問題，緩解房價過高現象。

關鍵字

房屋價格；房價指數；房地產稅賦措施；不動產信用管制措施；追蹤資料模型

並列摘要

In recent years, the high housing prices in Taiwan have become a social issue, especially in Taipei. Also, the extravagant housing prices have become a hindrance to many people migrating to urban areas. Since the financial crisis in 2008, the authorities have implemented a series of housing policies to stabilize the housing market. Given that housing prices are affected by the macroeconomic factors and the housing policies, the study will utilize housing prices of ten cities with different income levels, including the six municipalities and also the real estate price index published by the real estate company. The purpose is to analyze the impact of macroeconomic factors and housing policies on housing prices. The result shows that the rate of income level change has significant positive correlation with the rate of housing prices change, which could explain why housing price in Taipei is higher. Furthermore, the change in the average percentage of mortgage is also the factor affecting house prices since the decrease of percentage of mortgage will put financial pressure on the house demanders to decrease their willingness to purchase houses. On the other hand, for the results of housing policies, taxation measures don’t have significant impact on housing prices due to various taxation types and different purposes of purchasing house, which result in different expectation and behaviors of consumers. In the meanwhile, the real estate credit controls have significant impact on the new-home market in the six municipalities. It shows that the controls reduce the investment motivation effectively in the six municipalities by limiting the percentage of mortgage on luxury apartments transactions and the second household. However, in the modern society with income distribution inequality, affluent people have less demand for mortgage, and they can also hold their houses for a long time to reduce the amount of tax, making the housing policies difficult to stabilize housing prices in the long-term. Therefore, this study suggests imposing the vacant housing tax on people with unused houses to ensure housing justice and solve the problem of extravagant housing prices.