中央對地方補助款分配與政治景氣循環的關聯(2008~2020年)

每逢中央選舉年，政治候選人競開補助款支票、追加預算，愈近選舉日，新增建設、福利擴張，執政黨為達勝選目標不惜操縱補助款。本研究探討2008至2020年期間中央補助款分配全國22縣市和政治景氣循環的關聯，了解執政黨利用中央補助款達成其政治目的情況，研究結果顯示： 1、中央政府補助款證實有政治景氣循環現象，其中上級政府補助、一般性補助、社福補助符合選舉年的投機派與政黨派的政治景氣循環，以及總統任期循環，而上級政府補助還符合總統競選連任年的投機性政治景氣循環。 2、中央政府補助款除有政治景氣循環現象也有分配政策情況，其中上級政府補助除呈現政治景氣循環的分配情況，並於縣市執政黨籍立委比例愈高條件下，地方會分配到更多的上級政府補助。另外，一般性補助、教育補助除符合投機派，執政黨為了總統選舉勝選，會將補助款分配予對立選區及垂直分立縣市，藉以擴大選票範圍拉攏選民。 3、過去研究顯示計畫型補助較容易受政治左右，一般性補助受規範性因素影響，但本研究結果卻顯示計畫型、一般性補助都會受政治變數影響。2008至2020年期間民進黨傾向計畫型補助，國民黨青睞於一般性及專案補助，教育、社福補助則屬民進黨的偏好。

關鍵字

投機派政治景氣循環；政黨派政治景氣循環；總統任期；分配政治；縱橫資料分析

並列摘要

Every time before the Presidential and Legislator Election in Taiwan, political candidates compete to write grant checks and supplementary budgets. The closer the election day, the more new construction and expansion of benefits. The ruling party will not hesitate to manipulate and increase subsidies to achieve the goal of winning the election. The purpose of this research is to analyze the relationship between the Central Government's distribution of subsidies and the Political Business Cycle from 2008 to 2020 and to understand how the ruling parties manipulate the distribution of subsidies in the central election year and presidential term. The research results show: 1. The Central Government Subsidies confirm that there is a Political Business Cycle phenomenon. The Superior Government Subsidies, General Grants, and Social Welfare Grants conform to the Political Business Cycle of opportunistic and partisan, and the presidential term cycle. The Superior Government Subsidies are also in line with the Opportunistic Political Business Cycle of the presidential reelection year. 2. In addition to the Political Business Cycle, the Central Government Subsidies also present a distribution-based political manipulation. Among them, the Superior Government Subsidies are in line with the Political Business Cycle of opportunistic and partisan, the presidential term, the presidential re-election opportunistic, the county, and city ruling party membership The higher the proportion of legislators, the more meat-barrel subsidies from the superior government. In addition, General Grants and Education Grants are in line with the Opportunistic Political Business Cycle. In order to win the presidential election, the ruling party will allocate subsidies to opposing or swing constituencies and vertically divided government in order to expand the scope of votes to attract voters. 3. Past studies have shown that Programs Grants are more likely to be influenced by politics, and General Grants are affected by normative factors. However, the results of this research show that both Programs and General Grants are affected by political variables. From 2008 to 2020, the ruling party has a policy concept of subsidies. The DPP prefers Programs Grants, the KMT favors General and Project Grants, and Education and Social Welfare Grants are the preferences of the DPP.