風力發電爬坡事件之研究

全世界風力發電的快速增長導致媒體對風力發電技術的關注和公眾意識的提高。但由於風力發電僅在具氣流擾動及空氣流動下才會發生。因此，風力發電並不像傳統能源那樣具有可調度，穩定性，進而提供穩定的電力供應。風力發電它的主要價值是抵消了化石能源之燃料消耗及因此所產生的碳排放。而在發電高峰時期，通常只有一小部分的風能被輸送應用；因此，風力發電機的容量價值有限。這會導致人們擔心風力發電對維持電網及電力供應之可靠性。由於大部分風力發電之研究大多集中在對風力發電的輸出做短、中、長期的預測，很少文獻去討論氣候對風力發電和電網產生的影響，因此本文將使用歷史資料去研究分析台灣風電場的現況並對台灣風電場進行爬坡事件的統計和檢測。而由本論文的研究分析中，可得到風力發電爬坡事件與氣候的關聯性，風速的變化，氣溫、降雨、風場之型態等相關因素均有著相關性，而其中大範圍的天氣變動及季節性氣候變化，如：熱帶氣旋、季節交替、東北季風對台灣風力發電爬坡事件有著相當顯著的影響，但因為相關數據的缺乏而導致風力發電爬坡事件對電網可靠度的影響，往往被人所忽略，因此藉由本論文之分析與討論，期待後進能更深入研究並建立完整的數據庫以利未來風力發電電網的建置。

關鍵字

風力發電；爬坡事件；統計分析

並列摘要

Wind power does not provide a steady supply of electricity like conventional energy sources, and typically only a small percentage of wind energy is delivered for application during peak generation periods; therefore, the capacity value of wind turbines is limited. This may lead to concerns about the reliability of wind power in maintaining the grid and power supply. Since most research on wind power generation focus on short-, medium-, and long-term forecasts of wind power output, there is little literature discussing the impact of climate on wind power generation and the power grid, so this paper will use historical data to analyze the current situation of wind farms in Taiwan, and statistical analysis on ramp events of wind farms in Taiwan. From the analysis of this thesis, we can learn that the wind power ramp events are related to climate, wind speed change, temperature, rainfall, wind field pattern, and other related factors. However, due to the lack of relevant data, the impact of wind power ramp events on grid reliability is often overlooked. Therefore, through the analysis and discussion in this thesis, we expect to conduct more in-depth research and establish a complete database for future wind power grid construction.