為什麼台灣的有些邦交得以維繫,有些卻會中斷?本研究認為邦交國的國內政治因素重要性不亞於地緣政治、中國經濟誘因和兩岸政治互動等已經眾所周知的變數。特將研究對象聚焦於拉丁美洲及加勒比海地區7個西語系總統制國家,包括邦交國巴拉圭、瓜地馬拉、宏都拉斯及尼加拉瓜,及前邦交國巴拿馬、多明尼加及薩爾瓦多。並以7國國內政治中的「總統所屬政黨意識形態」及「府會關係」為變數建立4個「外交風險等級」,經卡方檢定之量化分析,驗證了「外交風險等級和與台灣維持邦交具關聯性」的假設;再進一步以巴拉圭、薩爾瓦多及尼加拉瓜為例,進行質性案例分析。研究發現,邦交國國內政治的外交風險等級和是否與台灣維繫邦誼之間息息相關;另外在評估外交風險的變數中,總統大選後「總統所屬政黨意識型態」的變遷,似乎比「府會關係」的變遷更為關鍵。
This study questions the influential factors surrounding and affecting the relationship between Taiwan and the country’s diplomatic allies. The author considers the domestic politics of the allied countries an influence of similar strength to other well-known factors including geopolitics, China’s economic incentives, and cross-strait political interactions. The scope of this research covers seven Spanish-speaking and presidentialism countries in Latin America, with Paraguay, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua being Taiwan’s current allies and Panama, Dominican Republic and El Salvador being the former ones. This study set “the ideology of the country president’s political party” and “the unified or divided government” as variables and established four Diplomatic Risk Levels based on the said countries’ domestic affairs and proceeded to run Chi-square test to verify the set hypothesis. Next, the author analyzed situations in Paraguay, El Salvador and Nicaragua as supporting case studies. The outcome of the study showed that the change of Diplomatic Risk Levels is closely related to the actual interaction between Taiwan and its allies. In addition, the result indicated that the ideology difference following the country’s change of president (and ruling party) has more critical influence than the types of governments (unified or divided) occurring post presidential election in the countries studied.