- 學位論文
產業決策序列於市場產能配置之分析
Estimation of Sequential Decisions on Industry Demand Allocation
摘要
本研究係以順序競爭的方式來衡量同質產品市場中企業之間非對稱的影響效果。在替代和互補效果的作用下，企業流通在外的存貨量將會對其對手造成產品效用上的增減，進而影響最後市場的採購量。研究中我們提出了一個兩階段的選擇模型以估計市場的購買行為，接著我們使用潛在變數對決策序列進行建模，並估計兩家競爭廠商在市場上的存貨水準，以分析非對稱效果對競爭的影響。本研究解決了市場存貨的資料缺失問題，並在競爭序列模型中提供了估計實際競爭順序的方法。於實證分析中我們選擇了DRAM市場中的海力士和美光作為研究對象，並從反事實分析中，給予當前兩家競爭廠商在價格與數量組合中的最適策略。
並列摘要
We try to measure the asymmetric effects between firms of a similar product in a sequentially competing manner. The asymmetric effects, including substitution and complementary effects, refer to competing firms where one firm dominates or cooperates with the other, yet the product inventories of the firms held by the industrial market lessen or raise the utility of its counterparty's. We first develop a direct utility model to capture the purchase behavior of the industrial market. Next, we model the decision sequences with latent variables and estimate the level of inventories of competing firms held by the industrial market to analyze how the asymmetric effects influence the competition. In our study, we solve the missing data issue of inventories and propose a model to determine the competing sequences. Data of the leading manufacturers in the DRAM industry are used in our empirical study and the counterfactual analysis is conducted to find the best strategy for the competing firm to set the optimal price-quantity combination.