- 學位論文
離岸風力發電投資風險模型之建構
Construction of a Risk Assessment Model for Investment of Offshore Wind Farms in Taiwan
摘要
離岸風場開發專案之投資本身存在風險，投資前之風險評估工作可降低或避免財務損失發生之可能。有些風場開發專案之可行性評估似未描述各種不確定性對投資該種專案之影響；而翻閱國內外文獻，也尚未找到一套方法，藉以評估多種不確定因素對風場投資專案所造成的風險。就此，本研究依據可靠度工程常用之隨機強度-應力理論，將投資一特定風場所能衍生之收益視為強度、將投資成本視為應力，並將影響前述兩變數之多種不確定性因素視為隨機變數，藉以建構一套風場投資風險之評估模型。為示範該模型之運作，本研究收集並瞭解政府所訂定之離岸風力發電躉購費率，同時也蒐集我國一特定離岸風力發電場之風速數據、風力發電機成本、能量轉換效率及可靠度等資料，考量包括風機系統與零組件因各種不確定性所導致之失效風險或可靠度指標，據以評估該風場之投資風險。經分析評估該特定風力發電場第二階段計畫，在符合本研究所設定的條件與假設下，投資風險趨近於零。雖難經驗證，但以上評估示範間接說明本研究所建構離岸風力發電投資風險評估模型之可應用性，其分析評估結果可與其他投資評估結果交叉比對。
並列摘要
The investment of an offshore wind farm is risky and, therefore, needs a pre-investment assessment to avoid potential financial loss. To that purpose, a risk assessment model is proposed in this thesis. The model is based on the probabilistic strength-stress theory frequently used in reliability engineering. It considers the profit from investing in a specific wind farm as the strength and the investment cost as the stress. Both the strength and stress are random variables owing to various uncertainties. The probability of stress excessing strength reflects the investment risk. To demonstrate applicability of the model, this study collects data such as feed-in tariffs of wind power, wind speed, energy conversion efficiency, wind turbine cost, construction cost, reliability and maintainability cost of a specific offshore wind farm in Taiwan. Potential uncertainties of data, especially those related to the reliability and maintainability of turbine system and components are taken into consideration. After analyzing the specific wind farm, the model reveals that, based on the collected data and under assumptions made in this study, the investment has very little risk. This study would not emphasize result of the specific wind-farm project but on the proposed risk assessment model. It is believed the model can be used as a supplement tool for financial risk assessment when a company considers investing in a wind farm in Taiwan.
參考文獻
延伸閱讀
- 張鼎煥（2019）。建構離岸風電產業對金融環境之風險與效益。臺灣經濟研究月刊，42(6)，113-119。https://doi.org/10.29656/TERM.201906_42(6).0014
- 鄭建廷（2019）。離岸風力發電開發之實質選擇權評價〔碩士論文，淡江大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://www.airitilibrary.com/Article/Detail?DocID=U0002-2606201914110100
- 劉大溶（2019）。離岸風電無追索權專案融資之風險解析與對策。臺灣經濟研究月刊，42(3)，118-126。https://doi.org/10.29656/TERM.201903_42(3).0014
- 徐文科（2022）。Offshore Wind Potential Assessment of West Central Taiwan〔博士論文，國立臺灣大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU202200273
- Liu, Y. T. (2019). The Study of Taiwan Offshore Wind Farm Level Control [master's thesis, National Taiwan University]. Airiti Library. https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU201904420