- 學位論文
影響上市外銷、內需產業公司盈餘的決定因素 及政策效果
The factors that affect the earnings of the listed export-oriented and local domestic companies and policy effects
摘要
由於台灣地區幅員狹小與資源有限，國際貿易活動對經濟發展扮演相當重要的角色。而在經濟發展的歷程中是以滿足台灣內部市場的內需產業，以及提供國外市場需求的外銷產業，是共同推動台灣經濟成長的主體。在只考慮直接貿易下，本文想要探討外銷與內需產業中，有哪些因素是影響盈餘變化的重要原因。 本文利用panel模型，使用台灣外銷及內需產業中上市公司的跨年度資料，進行實證，除了使用一般公司內部財務比例當成解釋變數外，還加入與貿易活動及與整體環境相關的總體變數。另外，想驗證政府所實施的財政政策及貨幣政策對這些產業有無實質上的幫助，也額外選取適當的變數進行實證。 實證結果發現，不論外銷或內需的上市公司，公司內部財務健全與否，仍是影響盈餘的重要因素。然而，由於所選取的公司性質不同，因此像業內盈餘，負債比例等變數對於公司盈餘會有著不同的影響。 總體變數對於所選取的12家上市公司的影響也著不顯著。在考慮政府政策後，財政政策只有對屬外銷產業的上市公司產生效果，貨幣政策不論在外銷或是內需皆無法發生作用。
關鍵字
上市外銷產業及內需產業公司並列摘要
Because of the limited area of Taiwan and a deficiency of natural resources, international trade activities play an important role in Taiwan,s economic development. During the process of economic development, local domestic industries that satisfy domestic needs in Taiwan and export-oriented industries that offer commodities to foreign markets are the main factors that push economic growth in Taiwan. Considering direct trade activities, this paper would like to discuss which factors affect the variation of earnings in the two different industries. This paper uses the panel model to test real data carried over to the next year from export-oriented and local domestic industries in Taiwan. The data contain financial ratios from individual companies, macroeconomic variables about trade activities and government policies, which include fiscal and monetary policies. By empirical results, no matter if the listed companies are export-oriented or local domestic industries, their interior financial structures are main factors that affect earnings. However, earnings from fundamental business activities and liability ratio have different impacts on those companies because of the different characters of the two industries. Macroeconomic variables also do not have significant effects on these listed companies. Taking the government into consideration, fiscal policy only brings about the variation of earnings in local domestic industry. However, monetary policy does not account for any variations of earnings in the two industries.