TFT LCD 產業研究 暨 供需模型分析

A STUDY ON TFT LCD INDUSTRY ANALYSIS AND GLOBAL SUPPLY-DEMAND MODELLING

林育民(Yu-Ming Lin)

指導教授 ： 湯明哲

國立臺灣大學/管理學院/國際企業學研究所/碩士(2004年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2004.10251

摘要

供給與需求的預測是產業與證券分析的基礎；然而，不同的內部與外部因數均會影響到產業以及市場，也因此造成了預估準確性的困難度。此篇論文主要在探討兩個主題：一、對薄膜電晶體液晶顯示器(TFT-LCD) 市場結構、產業行 為、穫利表現（SCP）作更深入的了解。二、藉由擴散理論的應用建立出一個供需模型，並對此新興科技產業的需求(2004至2010)與供給(2004至2005)做出動態的預測。
此篇研究建立在以下的結論:
1. TFT LCD是個高度競爭的產業，較鬆散的市場結構與產品的高同 性都導致面板價格在週期性的衰退過程中嚴重的跌價。藉由使用次一世代的生產技術而省下的成本大多都會轉嫁至末端的使用者身上，唯有企業獨特針對生產成本降低而開發的的新產品或過程精簡化才有可能獲得穩定的成本優勢。
2. 採取先行者優勢的策略在此產業中的成效是顯著的，新世代技術可以提高營運邊際利潤率達6-9%，比競爭對手提早推出新產品可使新 式廠房維持2.5年的經濟性獲利。對於新興的高科技，面版廠商應自初期便持續不斷的投資以擴大，或至少維持，本身的獲利能力。腳步較慢的跟隨者在推出產品時就只能以較低的價格出售，獲利率會變得較低，新世代生產線的穫利週期也會較短。
3. TFT-LCD產業就長期而言將會是持續高度成長的，先進的生產技術 及龐大的財務需求將會造成產業長期有較高的進入障礙。在這大者恆大的競賽中，我們將可以預見一個更集中的市場結構。隨著TFT-LCD的應用擴及LCD顯示器以及液晶電視(LCD TV)市場，我們可以 預期 TFT-LCD製造商的議價 能力在未來將增強。
4. 預計從2004至2010年， TFT-LCD產業會有15.8%的需 求複合年成長 率(CAGR)，而液晶電視預期將成為推動產業的主力﹔相較於筆記型電腦9.7%與LCD顯示器14.3%的CAGR，液晶電視將可達到68.3%的年成長率。
5. LCD顯示器的普及率預期將在2004年達到高峰— 也就是其問世後的 第八年﹔相較於CRT(映像管)顯示器在其推出後20年(1999)才達 到高 峰，LCD有 較快的擴散速度。
6. TFT-LCD產業對於短期的液晶電視需求過於樂觀。就目前而言，液 晶電視的買家仍視其為一個”昂貴的傳統電視”，而非一”必購”的新科技商品﹔而替代性科技商品的存在，像是電漿電視(PDP)，也都會使液晶電視的擴展速度趨於緩慢。
7. 2005年潛在的過度供給很有可能是導因於液晶電視面板生產產能過剩；然而，玻璃基板的短缺與新廠房啟用時間的延遲多少會減輕2005年供給過量的情形。

關鍵字

市場結構 ； 薄膜電晶體液晶顯示器 ； Bass 理論與模型 ； LCD顯示器 ； 供給與需求預測 ； 新產品擴散 ； TFT-LCD ； 液晶電視 ； 筆記型電腦

並列摘要

Supply-demand forecasting is the groundwork for industry analysis and security analysis. However, accuracy is hard to achieve given the range of internal and external variables that affect industries and markets. The objective of this thesis is two-fold: firstly, to provide a deeper understanding of the market structure, conduct and performance (SCP) of the Thin Film Transistor Liquid Crystal Display (TFT LCD) industry, and secondly, to provide dynamic end-demand forecasts (from 2004-2010) and supply estimates (from 2004-2005) for this new technology by building a supply-demand model through the application of innovation diffusion theory.
This research posits several finding.
1. TFT LCD is a highly competitive industry. Less concentrated market structure and product homogeneity will lead to intensify price cut during a cyclical downturn. Majority of cost savings by migrating to advanced technology are passed on to end-users. Only firm-specific cost savings via product and process re-design can generate sustainable cost edges.
2. Early mover strategy counts in the industry. A new generation of technology can improve operating margins for a given product by 6-9%. Higher returns on the new fab can be sustained for 2.5 years by roll-outing new products ahead of rivals. TFT LCD companies should try to extend or sustain profitability through continued early stage investment in new technology. Latecomers will face lower prices at launch and should thus generate much lower returns over a shorter time span.
3. TFT LCD’s industry performance should improve in the long run. HII will advance due to higher barrier of entries in terms of technology capability and financial muscle. With the “big getting bigger,” we are likely to see a more concentrated market structure in the future. With TFT LCD’s applications expanding into LCD monitor and LCD TV whose markets are even less concentrated, we expect TFT LCD makers’ bargaining power to improve going forward.
4. TFT LCD demand to rise at a CAGR of 15.8% from 2004-2010. LCD TV is forecast to be growth driver for the industry from 2004-2010 with a CAGR of 68.3%, versus notebook PC’s 9.7% and LCD monitor’s 14.3%.
5. LCD monitor’s diffusion is expected to peak in 2004—eight years after its introduction. This is shorter than CRT monitor’s, which peaked in 1999, more than 20 years after its launch. This result is in line with what Bass’ theory highlighted, that is, the expected demand dynamics can affect the process choice decision.
6. TFT LCD industry is overly optimistic on near term LCD TV demand. Currently, LCD TV buyers treat it as another conventional item to replace their existing TV rather than a “must-buy” good forced by any “technology push”. Availability of alternative technology, such as PDP, will also slow the diffusion speed of LCD TV.
7. Potential oversupply in 2005 is likely due to excess capacity for the LCD TV market. However, a shortage of mother glass and likely delay in new fab rollouts may mitigate 2005 overcapacity to some extent.

並列關鍵字

Bass Model ； Supply-Demand forecast ； TFT LCD ； Innovation Diffusion ； LCD monitor ； Notebook PC ； Market Structure ； LCD TV

參考文獻

Armstrong, J. Scott, Editor (2001). Principals of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston

Hall, H. Bronwyn (2003). Hall on Diffusion. University of California at Berkeley, CA

Periodicals and Paper

Bass, Frank M. (1969). A New-Product Growth Model for Consumer Durables. Management Science 16 (January). 215-227

Becker, R. H. and L. M. Speltz (1983). Putting the S-Curve to work. Research Management 26: 31-33.