不分紅養老保險之競爭力分析

The Strategy analysis of the Non-dividend Endowment Policy

林佩穎(Pei-Ying Lin)

指導教授 ： 蔡啟良

國立臺灣大學/管理學院/財務金融學研究所/碩士(2004年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2004.01730

摘要

在壽險業，消費者是處於相對弱勢的地位，大部分的保戶只能從業務員身上得到資訊，雖然坊間有許多教導消費者如何購買保險的書籍，但對於購買決策的模擬，均只停留在使用固定利率算出可能的報酬。
本研究以三位同樣30歲的男性保戶，購買市面上的傳統養老保險、保障型定期保險、以及與利率連動的投資型變額壽險。到期的模擬結果發現，購買養老保險的消費者收益表現遠遜於其他消費者，原因在於付出之養老保險保費昂貴，使得期初之投資金額少於其他消費者，失去享受利率上漲好處的機會。在台灣，由於養老保險標榜儲蓄、保障兩者兼具，有許多人雖然買了保險，但因為保費實在太貴，無法一次購足應有的保障，每人保險額度過低；另外購買定期保險與投資型變額保險之模擬結果，以購買定期保險的消費者收益略勝一籌，這是由於投資型商品，通常與其他金融商品連結，除了壽險公司的費用外，還需負擔購買其他金融商品的費用。本研究透過動態利率模型，達到近似實際狀況的模擬，希望這樣的購買策略模擬，能夠被廣泛使用，使消費者清楚養老保險背後的真相，並從而選擇適合自己的保險種類。

關鍵字

養老保險 ； 不分紅

並列摘要

For the life insurance industry, the policyholders are on the weaker position. The insurance sale agent would take most information to their clients. Although there are lots of books that talk about “Insurance”, but the simulation of the purchase decisions are using the fixed interest rate to calculate the results.
In this paper, I develop three purchase strategies (buying endowment, term, or variance insurance policy) to simulate the behaviors of the insurance consumers. In addition, this paper uses the stochastic interest rate model to simulate the direction of the market rate. That could make the results more close to the reality. As a result, the consumer who buys the endowment has the worst investment achievement. It is because of the expensive premium. In the beginning, it left less money to invest by the market interest rate.

並列關鍵字

endowment stochastic

參考文獻

1.John C. Cox；Jonathon E. Ingersol；Stephen A. Ross, 1985, A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rate, Econometrica, Vol.53, No.2, 385-408

3.Chenghsien Tsai；Weiyu Kuo；Wei-Kuang Chen, 2002, Early surrender and the Distribution of Policy Reserve ,Insurance Mathematics & Economics, 429-445

4.Harry H. Panjer；David R.Bellhouse,1980, Stochastic Modeling of Interest Rate with Applications to Life Contingencies, Journal of Risk and Insurance,Vol.47, Issue 1,91-110.

5.D’Arcy, Stephen P., and Keun Chang Lee(1987)，”Universal/ Variable Life insurance Versus Similar Unbundled Investment Strategies”，Journal of Risk and Insurance, 54, pp. 452-477

11.林子綾, 民國九十二年六月 ,”考量風險整合下之死差率避險以及最佳產品組合” ,國立台灣大學財務金融所碩士論文