- 學位論文
電影上映時序最適化分析：以大台北地區為例
The Optimal Timing Decision of Movie Industry: A Forecast Model of Taipei City Area
摘要
電影欣賞是台灣民眾日常生活中的重要娛樂方式，因此創造了龐大的經濟產值；電影產業中存在多級連續銷售市場通路，其中包含一輪電影院、二輪電影院與DVD租售市場。電影發行業者依據不同的授權合約與通路業者合作獲取收益，同時必須針對各級市場制定發行時序決策。本研究藉由了解電影產業需求推演發行業者的收益函數，配合市場實證資料了解各級市場間需求關係，並尋找可有效解釋的原因。 本研究發現，大台北電影市場的需求符合於新產品擴散理論中創新效果大於模仿效果的模型，片商的時序決策存在兩難的取捨困局，過早進入次級市場將傷害初級市場銷售收益，過遲進入次級市場則將損失次級市場需求，本研究並將2013年2月 – 2014年2月大台北地區電影銷售的實證數據帶入片商收益模型中，探求片商現行進行時序決策的因素。 研究結果顯示，電影類型因素可有效解釋現行片商的現行發行時序策略，其原因有三，首先，不同類型電影消費者對聲光效果的要求不同；其次，不同類型的電影發行業者也傾向採取不同的推廣策略；最後，不同類型的電影造成討論的熱度不同，產生不一致的同儕壓力。
並列摘要
Watching movies is one of the most popular entertainments for the Taiwanese; it also produces a large amount of economic output. There are several sequential selling channels in the movie industry, which includes first run movie cinemas, second run movie cinemas and the DVD market. Movie distributers cooperate with channels and receive revenues according to different types of authorization contracts; meanwhile, they need to make the release timing decision for each channel. This study develops the movie distributers’ revenue models and uses collected data to realize relationships between those channels’ demand functions; and in the end, finds out the factors behind those relationships. This study found that the box-office in the Taipei Area fit the new product diffuse model whose innovation effect is larger than imitation effect. A dilemma appears for movie distributers when they make timing decisions. If they decide to enter the secondary market too fast, they will damage the sales from the first market. On the other hand, if they decide to enter the secondary market too late, they will lose potential demands there. In this study, actual box-office data between Feb., 2013 and Feb., 2014 are used in the revenue mode to find out which factors may affect the movie distributers as they decide the release timing for the movies. Conclusions can thus be reached that factors related to movie genres can effectively be used to explain how the movie distributers decide the release timing for the movies. There are three main factors. First, consumers of different movie genres have different demands to sonic and visual effects. Second, movies distributers tend to design different promotion strategies for different movie genres. Last, different movie genres can stir up different degrees of discussion, thus cause various levels of peer pressure.