農業生產與環境之探討：以台灣為例之三篇論文集

Three Essays of Agriculture Production and Environment in Taiwan

呂振福(Chen-Fu Lu)

指導教授 ： 張宏浩

國立臺灣大學/生物資源暨農學院/農業經濟學研究所/博士(2015年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2015.11198

摘要

近年來無論世界各國或台灣，在食品衛生與健康上接連出現重大公共意外，引發消費者在飲食攝取上更重視健康，而有機農作物相對於其他農產品在食品安全與健康上具有更高的保障。本文以有機稻米作為研究對象，利用傳統空間模型來分析有機稻米驗證面積在空間上是否相關，此外，本研究更嘗試探討有哪些因素會導致該面積往熱區、冷區聚集。研究結果發現，台灣有機稻米驗證面積存在空間相關外，各縣市亦呈現不同空間相關現象；在控制空間因子後，經營型態、土壤自然生產力除了會顯著影響面積大小外，並且也會顯著影響使得該農地成為熱聚集區、冷聚集區之機率；而該農地之淹水潛勢，一樣是影響使其成為冷、熱聚集區機率大小因素之一。在政策建議方面，未來若有機會成立「有機農業生產專區」，實證結果顯示，花蓮縣的花蓮市、富里鄉、玉里鎮等，適合以此做為有機農業生產專區之示範區。最後，本文嘗試解釋空間相關之影響傳遞過程，本文推論，農民的選擇會深受其鄰近農民影響外，從事有機農作的農民會盡量確保其農場周邊環境與所生產的產品符合有機規範，若其鄰近農民尚未成為有機農，其與轉型成為有機農作的條件可能也相差不遠，因此在潛移默化中，透過這看不見的效果(空間相關)，將影響「距離越近」的農民。

關鍵字

有機農業 ； 空間分析 ； 有機農業生產專區

並列摘要

Considerable attention has been given to the impact of climate variability on farm production, and most of the researches have been provided by agronomists to identify the bio-physical relationship between climate factors and crop production. Relatively little attention has been given to this relationship from the standpoint of agricultural economists. This study aims to fill this void by assessing the potential cost of ignoring the impact of weather variability on the estimation of rice production function. Using nationwide representative farm-level data in Taiwan in 2008 and the Geographic Information System method, we merge the appropriate weather data with the existing farm data. Our results point to a biased estimation of the input elasticities if weather conditions are not considered. Moreover, the effects of temperature on rice production are more pronounced than the effects of rainfall.

This study has used the panel data of Rice Production Cost Survey (RPCS) from Council of Agriculture (CoA) in Taiwan to assess the potential air pollution effects of the petrochemical industry on agricultural production in Yunlin Country. We have adopted the recently developed panel data approach of Hsiao et al. (2012) and synthetic control method of Abadie et al. (2010) for evaluation of treatment effect to construct the counterfactual paths of Yunlin’s rice production for the first and second period and further estimated what kind of pollutants would be account for the reduction of rice output. Our results have not only revealed the importance of ex post counterfactual analysis, but also provided empirical evidence that the possible adverse influence of petrochemical industry on agricultural production in Yunlin Country may be an increasing severe and crucial problem in the future. Based on these results, we have concluded that how to measure the production of crop would be in absence of pollution or even without the development of petrochemical industry is important for policy makers and the Government to assess the influence on environment and agricultural development.

並列關鍵字

climate variability ； farm production function ； input elasticities ； rice ； treatment effect ； counterfactual analysis ； agricultural production and loss ； petrochemical industry ； multinomial logistic model ； Taiwan

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