房地合一課稅對營建業股價影響之事件研究

The Impact of the Integrated Housing and Land Income Tax System on the Stock Prices of the Construction Companies

潘柏宇(Po-Yu Pan)

指導教授 ： 林世銘

共同指導教授 ： 廖珮真

國立臺灣大學/管理學院/會計學研究所/碩士(2016年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU201600510

摘要

為了使不動產交易資訊透明化並有效抑止房價的攀升，政府先後提出房市政策因應，從早期的金融性限貸措施，中期的特種貨物及勞務稅與實價登錄制度之施行，到近期立法院通過的房地合一課稅新制，均是為改善房地產市場之發展。本文欲藉由事件研究法探討在房地合一課稅新制之修正法案自逕付二讀至三讀通過之二個事件期間，該政策是否對上市櫃營建業公司帶來影響，同時利用迴歸模型分析上市櫃營建業公司股價累積異常報酬與公司之出售用土地持有比率、獲利能力、負債比率、公司規模等公司特性之關聯性。
本文之實證結果發現，因為市場預期房地合一課稅將將減少上市櫃營建業公司之稅後盈餘，所以投資人會在房地合一課稅新制之事件期間出售該公司股票，造成上市櫃營建業公司股票在第二個事件期間產生顯著的負向累積異常報酬，且公司之獲利能力越高、負債比率越高、公司規模越小其股票負向累積異常報酬率愈大。

關鍵字

房地合一課稅新制 ； 事件研究法 ； 異常報酬

並列摘要

In order to make real estate transactions information more transparent and to curb the housing prices hike effectively, the government has proposed a series of relevant housing policies from financial credit limit, the specifically selected goods and service tax act, real price registration to integrated housing and land tax system recently passed by the legislative yuan to improve the development of the housing market. Using event study methods, this study examines the stock market reactions of the construction industry to the two selected event periods of the integrated housing and land tax system. Moreover, this research explores the relation between the stock cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) of this policy and firm characteristics such as land-to-total assets ratio (for sale), net income, debt ratio, and the size of company.
This study finds that investors sell the stock when the market expected the implement of the integrated housing and land tax system might reduce the net income of the construction industry. As a result, the stock prices would experience significantly negative cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) in the second event period, and the companies with greater net income, higher debt ratios and smaller sizes tend to have less cumulative abnormal returns (CAR).

並列關鍵字

Integrated Housing and Land Tax System ； Event Study ； Abnormal Return

參考文獻

6.周栩合，2007，土地增值稅稅率變動對不同縣市土地交易影響之研究，國立台灣大學商學研究所會計與管理決策組碩士論文。

8.林世銘、陳明進、蔡天俊，2000，土地增值稅政策對股市之影響，當代會計，第一卷第一期，第1-18頁。

9.林世銘、陳明進、汪瑞之，2005，土地增值稅減半政策之事件研究，證券市場發展季刊第17卷第1期：第75-100頁。

10.林松樹，2016，房地合一課稅精解。

12.徐俊賢，房地合一稅之解析與因應，會計研究月刊，第356期，第102頁-110頁。