行動聯網之經濟效益研究: 芬蘭與台灣之比較與其潛力分析

Economic Effects of Mobile Internet: Comparisons between Finland and Taiwan and Analysis on the potentials

翁榮隨(Winston S. Won)

指導教授 ： 游張松

國立臺灣大學/管理學院/商學研究所/碩士(2006年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2006.02667

摘要

行動電信(Mobile Phone)以及寬頻互聯網(Broadband Internet)之整合匯流的行動聯網(Mobile Internet)為全球追逐的發展趨勢。本文之目的在於建立行動聯網的經濟發展模式並且進行跨國資料實證分析比對，從而推估行動聯網的發展速度，比較、分析芬蘭與台灣在行動聯網發展趨勢之下的發展潛力與其經濟效益，並且推演出台灣下一波經濟發展的政策建議。
諾基亞是全球性的典範企業，成功地從一個北歐的林木業公司，蛻變為行動通訊產品及解決方案的巨擘。另一方面，台灣廠商在資訊通訊產業著墨極深，在PC衍生的產業鏈擁有絕對的優勢，台灣廠商如何借鏡諾基亞的成功秘訣，開創新的成長空間，為本文探討的重點。質言之，本文自外在總體環境分析芬蘭與台灣經濟結構的異同，尤其著重於知識存量、人力資本、社會資本的貢獻度。並根據科技成長預測模型，推定芬蘭與台灣成長模型要素的成長型態和其意涵。
本文以Cobb-Douglas生產函數、新古典成長模型、R&D-Based成長模型為基礎，提出以知識存量與社會資本為外顯變數的成長模型。然後佐以實證時間序列統計資料，計算出芬蘭、台灣以及29個先進國家的總和成長函數為總體經濟分析之依據。
根據實證資料及模式分析得知，如果同時發展、推動並且行銷行動聯網，則台灣將具有芬蘭的三倍發展潛力。為推估行動聯網的發展速度，本文應用Fisher-Pry模型，估算得知行動聯網大約只要四到五年就能在台灣地區達到50%的滲透率。
配合上述模型及實證分析發現，行動聯網為台灣未來的出路。本文並以此實證發現為基礎，推演台灣未來發展的對策。

關鍵字

知識存量 ； 社會資本 ； 行動聯網 ； 研發誘導之成長型 ； Cobb-Douglas生產函數 ； Fisher-Pry模型

並列摘要

Mobile Internet,the convergence of mobiltelecommunications network and broadbandInternet, has become the most sought after technology development around the globe. This study is intended to establish an economic development model of mobile Internet based upon cross-country empirical analysis. The estimate of mobile Internet penetration rate over time serves as a fundamental parameter to project future economic value in Finland and Taiwan respectively. Comparisons between Finland and Taiwan serve as the groundwork of economic development policy propositions.
Nokia, as a global paradigm, has evolved from a Baltic forestry and paper mill to a leader in mobile telecommunications solutions. On the other hand, Taiwan vendors have been deeply involved in ICT (Information and Communication Technology) and cultivated a hugely
successful PC-centric ecosystem. How to borrow Nokia’s secrets of success and find the new growth momentum is the subject of this study. In essence, this study analyzes the
commonality and differences between Finland and Taiwan in terms of economic structure, in particular, the contributions of knowledge stock, human capital, and social capital. Further, elements of Finland’s and Taiwan’s economic growth model are deduced based on technology
growth forecast models.
Cobb-Douglas production function, neoclassic economic growth model, and R&D-based economic growth model are employed to obtain the model of interest with knowledge stock and social capital as exogenous variables. An aggregate growth function based on the empirical time series of 29 countries’is derived and serves as the basis of macroeconomic analysis.
The model suggests that Taiwan would enjoy higher potential than Finland if two countries simultaneously develop, promote, and market mobile Internet. This study applies Fisher-Pry model in the inference of development rate of mobile Internet and concludes that the penetration rate in Taiwan would reach 50% between four and five years.
In accordance with the model and the findings above, mobile Internet is destined to be Taiwan’s future origin of growth. This study therefore proposes advices on the development policy given the empirical analysis.

並列關鍵字

Knowledge Stock ； Social Capital ； Mobile Internet ； Cobb-douglas Production Function ； R&D-based Growth Model ； Fisher-Pry Model

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