中國大陸地區技術進步與經濟增長的關聯性—以四川省為例

中國大陸四川省是中國西部人口最多的省分，在中國大陸改革開放後，人均產出增長落後於其全國平均水準，其中技術進步要素在產出增長中作用的弱化是重要原因。20世紀後，四川省採用各種政策措施促進技術進步，包括成立推動重點城市的產學研用聯盟、軍用技術轉為民用技術、各類金融創新工具和技術發明、研究的整合等。此外，近十幾年來，四川省廣泛建立新型工業園區和科技創新育成中心，集約化科技創新產業發展。本論文研究中國大陸地區四川省1978年以來技術進步與經濟增長的關聯性，以Lucas、Romer等為代表的內生增長模型為基礎，就技術進步貢獻中的「做中學」（Learning by Doing）進行創新。本論文首先認為，技術進步對產出增長的影響可以分為人力資本存量和一般性技術水準兩種；前者透過技術性支出形成，主要用於企業自主創新，而後者則是透過「做中學」形成，主要進行企業的生產活動。其次，本論文認為四川省雖然投入大量的教育經費，但是技術外溢現象對四川省人均產出增長的貢獻率仍不足，原因如下：第一，「做中學」行為並未與人力資本互相搭配；第二，技術創新環境和政策環境的弱化，導致該省的研發型人才流失。為檢驗模型的平穩性，本論文在四川省的產出模型基礎上構建24個VAR模型，每個模型的時間跨度為20年，結果發現其中18個模型是共整合的，說明四川省的技術進步綜合要素和人均產出間存在長期均衡關係。此外，本論文對這些VAR模型分別進行Johansen共整合檢定（Johansen Cointegration Test）、格蘭傑因果關係檢定（Granger Causality Test）與脈衝回應（Impulse Response Function）分析。結合分析結果，本論文認為：四川省的技術進步效應主要來自人力資本存量的增加；針對中國大陸目前「用工荒」和「就業難」問題，以及人才與勞工之間的貧富差距問題，在政策上提出：政府應選擇適當的教育投資方案，妥善分配各級教育體制資源的比例，以及應控制研發型勞工在各部門間的流動等建議。以四川省為例，本論文發現開發中國家若欲提高經濟增長，可以著重下列各點：第一，對科創企業在金融政策、稅收政策上的支援；第二，積極營造良好的科創產業營運環境，以提高技術溢出效應；第三，持續促進企業、研究機構之間的聯動發展；第四，注重在區域協同發展中擴大技術交流與合作；第五，提高科技成果轉化。

關鍵字

技術進步；人力資本；做中學；研發型人才；用工荒；就業難

並列摘要

Sichuan Province is the most populous province in Western China. After the reform　and opening up in mainland China, the growth of per capita output lags behind the national average. The weakening of the role of technological progress in output　growth is an important reason. Since the beginning of the new century, Sichuan　Province has adopted various policies and measures to promote technological progress, including incentives for alliances of industry, universities and research in key cities, incentives for conversion of military technology to civilian use,　incentives for integration of various financial innovation tools and technological inventions, and research. In addition, For more than a decade, Sichuan Province has taken the method of intensive development of science and technology innovation industry in the form of establishing new industrial parks and incubators of science and technology innovation in a wide range of provinces. This paper studies the relationship between technological progress and economic growth in Sichuan Province of mainland China since 1978. Based on the Endogenous Growth Model represented by Lucas and Romer, this paper makes some innovations on “learning by doing” in the contribution of technological progress. Firstly, this paper argues that the impact of technological progress on output growth can be divided into two types: human capital stock and general technological level. The former is formed through technological expenditure, which is mainly used for independent innovation of enterprises, while the latter is formed through “learning by doing”, which is mainly used for enterprises' production activities. Secondly, although Sichuan Province has invested a lot of education funds, the contribution rate of technology spillover to per capita output growth is still insufficient. The reasons are as follows: first, “learning by doing” behavior does not match with human capital; second, the weakening of technological innovation environment and policy environment leads to the loss of R D talents in Sichuan Province. In order to test the stationarity of the model, this paper constructs 24 VAR models based on the output model of Sichuan Province, and the time span of each model is 20 years. The results show that 18 models are co-integrated, which indicates that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the comprehensive factors of technological progress and per capita output in Sichuan Province. In addition, this paper conducts Johansen Integration Test, Granger Causality Test and Impulse Response Function on these VAR models. Combined with the analysis results, this paper holds that: the technological progress effect of Sichuan Province mainly comes from the increase of human capital stock; in view of the current “labor shortage” and “employment difficulty” in mainland China, as well as the gap between the rich and the poor between talents and labor, the paper puts forward that the government should choose appropriate education investment scheme, properly allocate the　proportion of education system resources at all levels, and we should control the flow of R D workers among different departments. Taking Sichuan Province as an example, this paper finds that if developing countries want to improve their economic growth, they can focus on the following aspects: first, financial policy and tax policy support for scientific and technological innovation enterprises; second, actively create a good operating environment for scientific and technological innovation industry to improve the technology spillover effect; third, continue to promote the cooperation between enterprises and research institutions; fourth, we should pay attention to expanding technological exchanges and cooperation in regional collaborative development; fifth, improve the transformation of scientific and technological achievements.