水庫操作對於短期洪災與長期缺水風險分析之研究

本研究之目的在於提出一方法及研究分析步驟，以供評估水庫防洪操作在不同之起始水位下，對長期枯水期間缺水及短期颱風期間下游控制點溢流之風險。本研究蒐集歷史颱風期間之水庫洪水入流歷線，藉由蒙地卡羅模擬法合成大量之水庫入流量歷線，放入防洪操作模式模擬得到防洪操作結束之水庫水位，並以此為起始條件由水庫優化調配模式，計算枯水期間之供水情形；颱風期間模擬防洪操作時之水庫放水量，則由倒傳遞類神經模式計算河道下游之水位變化，進而求得間下游控制點颱風期間之最高水位。最後經由風險分析之方法以考量安全邊際之方式，計算得到不同水庫防洪起始下，枯水期間之缺水及颱風期間下游溢流風險。本研究以台灣大漢溪流域石門水庫作為研究區域，研究結果顯示不同之水庫防洪起始水位，對於需水點枯水期缺水風險之變化影響甚大，且缺水風險隨著水庫上限值之增加而明顯降低，但對於颱風期間下游控制點溢流風險之變化影響甚小，且溢流風險隨著水庫上限值之增加而些微升高。由上述分析結果，建立洪災與缺水風險關係圖，以此作為水庫操作者及決策者，制訂洪汛期間水庫最佳起始水位之參考。

關鍵字

風險分析；優化調配模式；水庫防洪操作；蒙地卡羅模擬

並列摘要

This study proposes a methodology to assess the risk of the water shortage during a drought period and the risk of the downstream over-levee flows during a flood period based on the reservoir operation rules for flood control. These rules are defined by upper limits (or flood control storage zone). Through a Monte Carlo simulation, a series of hydrographs are generated to represent the reservoir inflow during a flood period based on historic typhoon events. This series of generated hydrographs are then applied to a reservoir flood operation simulation model. The simulation model calculates the water levels of reservoir at the end of a flood period and the reservoir release during the typhoon events. Reservoir release is used to calculate the water level at downstream control locations for evaluation of a short-term over-levee risk. The ending water level of the reservoir is used as the initial condition for a water distribution optimization model that evaluates drought conditions for long-term water supply. By applying risk analysis, an assessment is made on the risk of both the water shortage during a drought and over-levee flows during flooding seasons. Based on the results of the risk analysis, we evaluate the relationship among upper-limit sets, shortage risk, and over-levee risk and also provide reservoir operation suggestions based on the risk evaluation.

並列關鍵字

Optimization model ； Reservoir flood operation ； Monte Carlo simulation

參考文獻

魏志強，多水庫系統最佳防洪操作之研究，國立台灣大學土木工程學系博士論文，2007。

林宥成，水利設施多元系統可靠度之研究，國立台灣大學土木工程學系碩士論文，2006。

蔡亞欣，模糊範例學習推論系統於水位預測之研究，國立台灣大學生物環境系統工程學系碩士論文，2004。

Archfield, S.A. and Vogel, R.M., 2005. Reliability of reservoir firm yield determined from the historical drought of record. World Water and Environmental Resources Congress 2005, Anchorage, Alaska.

Bertoli, L. and Moisello, U., 1993. A regional model for estimating the probability distribution of routed peak discharges. Journal of Hydrology, 153: 103-138.

國際替代計量

水庫操作對於短期洪災與長期缺水風險分析之研究

全文下載

主題瀏覽