中共巡弋飛彈的戰略性嚇阻能力研究

The strategic deterrence capability of Mainland China’s cruise missile

田富國(Fu-Kuo Tien)

指導教授 ： 曾復生

淡江大學/國際研究學院/國際事務與戰略研究所碩士在職專班/碩士(2009年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2009.00030

摘要

1991年的波灣戰爭，美國運用巡弋飛彈作為戰場上先制打擊的利器，嚴重摧毀伊拉克的指管通情系統，大幅降低後續攻擊行動中各項武器裝備的損毀與人員傷亡，巡 弋飛彈於戰場上展現的精準攻擊能力，使它一躍為二十一世紀高科技精準武器的新星，其在戰略中的嚇阻能力與在局部戰爭中「殺手鐧」的功能受到矚目。中共由波灣戰爭中亦意識到巡弋飛彈所形成的戰略態勢的轉變，及其對敵人產生的心理及實質威脅，因此近年來亦積極研發及部署巡弋飛彈，企圖藉此反制美國及其盟邦在亞太地區的戰略部署，加強對亞太事務的影響力，進而確保其國家利益。此舉將對台灣及國際構成威脅，因此探討中共巡弋飛彈戰略性嚇阻能力之虛實，實為當前重要課題。
本研究採文獻分析法、演繹歸納法及歷史研究法，探討中共對「嚇阻戰略」理論的認知與實踐情形、巡弋飛彈的特性與優勢及中共發展巡弋飛彈的實況與特質，並運用嚇阻三要素評估共軍的嚇阻實力，同時與美國對照比較，了解二者的差異與強弱區分。
本研究達成之研究結論如下：
一、由嚇阻戰略理論演變的趨勢分析，傳統性高科技武器在局部戰爭和不對稱作戰型態中，已漸成為嚇阻的關鍵工具。
二、中共從近代戰爭中體認到「不對稱作戰」的效益，具精準打擊能力的巡弋飛彈，是「以優勝劣」的利器，更是「以劣勝優」的最佳選項。
三、巡弋飛彈集射程遠、精確攻擊、低空突擊、機動部署、一彈多用、經濟效益優…等諸多優點於一身，適於實施外科手術式攻擊。由於導引技術不斷精進，未來它將是常規嚇阻的有利籌碼，當嚇阻失效時，它亦能迅速轉為實戰的有效武器。
四、巡弋飛彈製造成本較低，而建立飛彈防禦系統卻需要耗費十倍以上金額，其攻擊經費與防禦經費的不成比例，有可能因此對敵方造成嚇阻效果。
五、巡弋飛彈具一彈多用的功能，除了傳統彈頭，亦可裝載微當量核子彈頭或生化彈頭，對戰略威懾及戰術攻擊均能產生驚人的效果。
六、由嚇阻三C：能力、可信度及溝通諸面向檢視中共戰略性嚇阻能力，發現中共已具備對相對弱勢國家實施戰略性嚇阻的能力，但比之美國，中共則處於弱勢。本研究認為中共實力雖不如美國，但擁有巡弋飛彈之後，可藉由不對稱戰力與美國抗衡，遏止美軍介入區域戰場。

關鍵字

嚇阻戰略 ； 巡弋飛彈 ； 戰略武器 ； 威懾 ； 巡航導彈 ； 不對稱作戰

並列摘要

In the 1991 Persian Gulf War the U.S.A used cruise missiles as first strike weapons in the battlefield. They seriously damaged Iraq’s command, control, communication and intelligence systems and considerably decreased the potential of an enemy response to damage U.S weapons, equipment and personnel. Cruise missiles display precise strike capability in the battlefield making them the new star of 21st century high tech precision weapons, especially their strategic importance as the ultimate deterrent in local tensions or possible conflicts . Mainland China also realizes the strategic transformation created by cruise missiles and understands the psychological and real threat toward the enemy of cruise missiles. Therefore they have vigorously studied, developed and deployed cruise missiles in recent years to attempt to restrain the U.S.A and its alliances’ strategic deployment, in order to reinforce influence on Asian affairs and to maintain its countries rising global position and security. These acts cause threats to Taiwan and international society, so it’s a current issue of great importance to explore the true threat of Mainland China’s cruise missiles strategic deterrence capability.
This study adopts a content analysis method, deductive and inductive method and historical research method to study Mainland China’s knowledge of, and actions with cruise missiles. The characteristics and advantages of their missiles and the situation and progression of Mainland China’s cruise missile development. The study also uses the cardinal factors of deterrence to evaluate the PLA’s (People’s Liberation Army) deterrence capability and simultaneously compare it with the U.S system to find out the differences and capabilities of the two.
The study’s conclusions are as follows:
1.From the strategic theory transformation trend analysis of deterrence, conventional high-tech weapons have gradually turned into a key instrument in the local and asymmetric war.
2.From their observations of contemporary war Mainland China understands the
effectiveness of asymmetric warfare and realizes cruise missiles with their precision strike ability are the ultimate deterrent in maintaining advantage and also an important weapons selection to turn inferiority into a superiority in a conflict.
3.Cruise missiles have several attractive functions, including long firing distance, precision strike, low-altitude raid, mobile deployment, multi-function with different warheads, economic advantage over developing missile defense systems, and suitability to perform surgical strikes. Due to guidance technology’s constant improvement, these are useful points for deterrence. Furthermore in the event that a conflict escalates and deterrence is no longer a strategic option they are still an effective offensive weapon.
4.Cruise missile production costs are relatively low and building up missile defense systems can require ten-times the budget of missile development. The disproportion of attack and defense costs could cause deterrence effectiveness toward an opponent.
5.Cruise missiles have multi-functions with different warheads, besides conventional
warheads they can also equip with equivalent nuclear or bio-chemical warheads. This gives them an astonishing capability for both strategic deterrence and tactics strikes.
6.Using the 3 cardinal factors of deterrence (3C): capability, credibility and communication aspects to examine Mainland China’s strategic ability, we understand Mainland China has already performed strategic deterrence toward relatively inferior countries but none as powerful as the U.S.A. This study considers China’s military power to be less than that of the U.S.A, but after having developed cruise missiles it could be evenly matched with the U.S.A and deter the U.S Army from becoming involved in local asymmetric warfare.

並列關鍵字

deterrent strategy ； cruise missile ； strategic weapon ； deterrence ； asymmetric warfare

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