人口結構對資產需求變化與長期股票報酬之影響

自20世紀以來衛生觀念的進步與醫療科技的發達，全球人口數不斷快速成長，人口結構也不斷老化，我國自1993年起便邁入高齡化社會，預估2026年我國將進入超高齡社會，根據Friedman(1957)提出恆常所得假說，人們最終會為了之後的養老生活，選擇持續投資較穩定的金融商品，為了維持生活中必要性之支出，老年人口必須持續持有收入來源，因此老年人口與年輕人口以何種資產形式持有財富，以求有更高的報酬來承擔老年人口與自己退休生活的沉重負擔，便是一項重要的議題，為了深入剖析台灣之人口議題，本研究欲利用SUR近似無相關迴歸模型探討台灣人口結構對資產需求(債券、貨幣、股票、土地)與長期股票報酬之關聯。研究結果發現，65歲以上老年人口佔總人口比例對貨幣需求具有顯著正向影響、對土地需求具有顯著負向影響，針對細分各年齡層之研究結果發現，75歲之後對土地需求的影響便不顯著，年輕族群對貨幣呈負向關係。在長期股票報酬方面，MMY(40~64歲對25~39歲人口數之比例)、OMY(65歲以上對25~39歲人口數之比例)和A65(65歲以上老年人口佔總人口比)與長期股票報酬率呈現顯著負相關，且研究結果顯示隨著累積期的增加顯著性越高。

關鍵字

人口結構；資產需求；資本市場

並列摘要

Since the improvements of public health and the developments of medical technology since the 20th century, the global population has been growing rapidly and also the population structure has been continually aging. Taiwan has entered an aging society since 1993, and it is estimated that Taiwan will enter an ultra-old society by 2026. According to the permanent income hypothesis proposed by Friedman (1957), people will eventually choose to invest continually in more stable financial assets for the use of later life. In order to maintain the necessary expenditures in later life, the elderly population must continue to hold income source. It is an important issue to study how the old and youth groups hold assets with higher returns and afford the later life expenditures. In order to deeply analyze the population structure in Taiwan, this research use the SUR model (seemingly unrelated regression model) to explore the correlation between Taiwan's population structure on asset demand (bonds, currency, stocks, land) and long-term stock returns. The results of the study find that the proportion of the aged over 65 years old in the total population has a significant positive impact on currency demand and a significant negative impact on land demand. That the impact on land demand from the aged over 75 years old is not significant, young groups have negative relationships with currencies. For long-term stock returns, MMY (proportion of the population aged 40 to 64 to the population of 25 to 39 years), OMY (proportion of the population aged over 65 to the population of 25 to 39 years), and A65 (proportion of the elderly population over 65 to the total population) have a significant negative correlation with long-term stock returns, and the results show that as the accumulation period increases, there is stronger significance.