中共對台政策發展之研究－從三次台海危機談起

自兩岸分治以來，大陸聲稱已為中國唯一合法代表，否認中華民國的主權國家地位，並且不放棄「武力解放」政策，台海之軍事衝突或緊張情勢增生，雖在我政府於1987年開放中國大陸探親，民間交流日益頻繁後，兩岸緊張情勢漸趨緩解，兩岸官方白手套「海基會」與「海協會」更首度進行正式會晤協商。然而1995 年李前總統於康乃爾大學發表演講多次提及「中華民國」，引發中國強烈不滿至1996年我舉行首次總統直選，選戰言論訴求定位為人民主權意志展現等舉措，被中國視為有意推行「台獨」；1999年李前總統接受德國之聲訪問時，提出「兩國論」，並於2000年第2次總統選舉中，由民進黨取得執政權，實現首次政黨輪替；以及2002年，陳前總統發表「台灣中國，一邊一國」等言論，引發中國再度強烈關注，且2004年總統選舉再度連任，兩岸關係多次陷入低點。2016 年台灣的總統大選再度由民進黨達成首度完全執政，勢必對中共的兩岸政策產生影響，而中共面對兩岸關係發展可能產生的變數，將會如何調整對台政策？是相對緊縮或是相對放鬆？為吾人應該關注之焦點。本論文採用歷史研究法與文獻分析法，探討中共歷來對台政策演變走向，並分析歷次台海危機中，大陸中國內部發展、國際局勢影響、兩岸關係發展局勢分析評析等內容之蒐集與分析，對可能影響中共對台決策因素進行分析，探究中共在面對我新政府執政後可能對台政策發展方向。

關鍵字

台海危機；和平統一；一國兩制；一個中國；九二共識

並列摘要

Since the partition between the two sides of the strait, the mainland claimed to have been the sole legitimate representative of China and denied the sovereignty of the Republic of China, and did not abandon the "liberation by force" policy. The military conflicts or tensions often occur between two sides of Taiwan Strait, In 1987, the ROC government began to allow visits to China and it did increasing frequency of non-governmental exchanges, the tensions between the two sides have gradually eased. In order to negotiate with China on operational issues without compromising the government's position on denying the other side's legitimacy, The non-governmental institution "Straits Exchange Foundation" and the "Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits" have even held formal meetings and consultations for the first time. However, in 1995, former president Lee made speeches at Cornell University referred to the "Republic of China." In 1999, he proposed the "two states theory." Also in the second presidential election in 2000, the DDP achieved the first political party rotation. The ROC government shifted away from its commitment to the one China policy and towards a separate political identity for Taiwan. And in 2002, former President Chen’s of "Taiwan, China, and one country on one side," caused China's strong attention, and the re-election of Chen in 2004, and cross-strait relationship fell to a low point. In 2016, the DPP captured landslide victories. There is bound to have an impact on cross-strait policy of the PRC. How will PRC adjust their Taiwan policy in the face of the variables in the development of cross-strait relations. It is relatively tight or relatively relaxed? Should be the focus of attention. In this paper, through literature analysis, to explore PRC’s Taiwan policy, throughout each generation, analysis on Internal and External Environment, and Taiwan's political situation, etc., to observe and analyze how the PRC’s Taiwan policy development will be when the new government starts to rule in Taiwan.