Google搜尋量指數是否在中美貿易戰影響美國工業類及科技類股指數?

近兩年如火如荼的中美貿易戰，對中美雙方皆造成了很大的影響，本文主要探討中美貿易戰期間Google搜尋量指數是否對美國工業及科技類指數造成影響。所採用的指數包含了SOX美國費城半導體指數、IXCO美國納斯達克電腦類指數、XCI美國AMEX電腦類指數、美國納斯達克通訊類指數、NWX美國AMEX網路股指數、DJUSAP道瓊美國汽車&零件業指數、US-IPI美國工業生產指數、US-ISM美國製造業指數和DJI道瓊工業平均指數，再透過Google Trends的搜尋聲量功能，設定2018.1.22至2019.12.13期間內，全球搜尋China US Trade War、Trade War、US China Traiffs、US China Sanction和US Intellectual Property Protection之關鍵字與本文所採用之九種指數做多元迴歸之分析。實證結果發現關鍵字China US Trade War、Trade War、US China Traiffs與多數指數呈顯著關係。從各大指數之圖表也可以發現2018年底美國各大指數皆因受到貿易戰波及導致嚴重下跌。

關鍵字

中美貿易戰； Google Trends ；搜尋量指數；美國工業類股指數；美國科技類股指數

並列摘要

In recent two years, the China US trade war is in full swing, which has a great impact on both China and the United States. This paper mainly discusses whether the Google search volume index is related to the U.S. industrial and technological indexes during the China US trade war. The indexes used include PHLX Semiconductor Index(SOX), NASDAQ computer Index(IXCO), AMEX Computer Technology Index(XCI), NASDAQ Telecommunications Index(IXTC), AMEX Networking Index(NWX), Dow Jones U.S. Automobiles & Parts Index(DJUSAP), U.S. Industrial Production Indexetc(USIPI), U.S. ISM Index, Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Average Index(DJI), etc. Then through the Google Trends search volume function, the global search for China US Trade War, Trade War, U.S. China Tariffs, US China Sanction, U.S. Intellectual Property Protection will be set in the period from January 22, 2018 to December 13, 2019 The keywords of sanction, U.S. intelligent property protection and the nine indexes used in this paper are analyzed by multiple regression. The empirical results show that the keywords, China U.S. Trade War, Trade War and US China Tariffs, are significantly related to most indexes. It can also be seen from the charts of major indexes that at the end of 2018, all major indexes in the United States suffered from the wave of trade war, which led to a serious decline.