影響國內產險業簽單保費收入因素之探討

台灣保險業發展迅速，業務量大幅成長，但卻面臨相當大的競爭壓力。長期以來，國內保險市場一直是壽險業獨大，但產險業也持續平穩發展。而各家產險公司的簽單保費收入一直是重要的經營績效指標。本文研究目的在探討影響產險業簽單保費收入的重要變數。實證資料涵蓋1986至2019年期間的國內產物保險業簽單保費收入、經濟成長率、物價指數年增率、新台幣匯率；還有資產規模、財產業務員證照數目，以及通路投保及網路投保等虛擬變數。其他尚加入產險公司品牌排名及行動裝置保險等質性變數。本文建立三種多元迴歸模型進行實證分析；實證結果顯示：一、國內生產總值（GDP）對簽單保費收入影響呈現正向關係且顯著，消費者物價指數（CPI）年增率對簽單保費收入成長率影響呈負向關係並不顯著、新台幣兌美元匯率對簽單保費收入成長率影響呈現負向關係且顯著。二、資產總額成長率對簽單保費收入成長率影響呈現負向關係並不顯著、財產業務員證照數量對簽單保費收入成長率影響則呈正向關係而顯著、有無網路投保對簽單保費收入成長率影響為正向關係不顯著、有無通路投保對簽單保費收入成長率影響亦呈現負向關係不顯著。三、前五大品牌排名及行動裝置保險也是影響簽單保費收入的重要因素。本實證研究希望能提供產物保險業者實用的策略管理參考，俾利強化產物保險業者經營業務績效。

關鍵字

簽單保費；產物保險；多元迴歸模型；網路投保；資產規模

並列摘要

Taiwan’s insurance industry is developing rapidly and its business volume has grown substantially, but it is also facing considerable pressure on competition. The domestic insurance market has long been dominated by the life insurance sector for quite a while, but the property and casualty insurance sector has also continued to flourish steadily. And the premium income of written policy has always been an important indicator of operating performance of various P&C insurance companies. The purpose of this study is to explore the important variables affecting the premium income of the P&C insurance industry. Empirical data from 1986 to 2019 includes premium income from written policy of domestic P&C insurance industry, economic growth rate, annual price index growth rate, NTD exchange rate, as well as asset size, license number of property insurance salesperson, and dummy variables of insurance via different channels and online insurance etc. Other qualitative variables such as brand rankings of P&C insurance companies and mobile device insurance are also looked at. This paper establishes three multiple regression models for empirical analysis. The empirical results show that: 1.) The impact of gross domestic product (GDP) on the premium income from written policy is positive and significant. The annual growth rate of the consumer price index (CPI) on the growth rate of premium income from written policy is negative and insignificant. The effect of the exchange rate of the New Taiwan Dollar against the US Dollar on the growth rate of premium income from written policy is negative but significant. 2.) The growth rate of total assets has a negative relationship with the growth rate of premium income from written policy and is not significant. The license number of property insurance salesperson has a positive and significant relationship with the growth rate of premium income from written policy. The presence of online insurance has positive effect on the growth rate of premium income of written policy though insignificant, and the effect of insurance through different channels on the growth rate of premium income from written policy also shows negative insignificant relationship. 3.) The ranking of the top five brands and mobile device insurance are also important factors affecting the premium income of written policy. This empirical study hopes to provide a practical strategy management reference for product insurers, in order to strengthen their business performance.