中共對台政策之研究—以國台辦網站公佈之「黨和國家領導人重要講話」為例（1996年至2011年）

中共在對台政策上的作為，會因為時空背景條件的轉換而有所調整，但其承繼性與延續性，仍不容忽視，因此本文想要對中共對台政策之延續及改變的脈絡作一探討，且本文主要藉由國台辦網站公佈的重要講話作為研究依據，是由於其官方背景，中台辦與國台辦是中共黨中央、國務院主管對台工作的辦事機構，實際常是「兩辦合一」，是「一套人馬、兩塊招牌」。其所擬定的對台方針，可直接上達中共中央對台領導小組，又中共長期慣用官方傳媒宣傳其主張及立場，在這樣的背景下，國台辦網站所公佈之資料有一定的權威性和參考價值。所以，本研究希望能理出中共對台政策長期以來變化的脈絡，想藉著分析與統計國台辦網站所揭示之重要講話，以「黨和國家領導人重要講話」為主要依據，逐篇檢視之。筆者希望探討從1996年到2011年為止的資料，以十六年為期，來釐清中共對台政策的延續與變化，本研究將採用內容分析法，經由質化與量化並行來作分析檢證。根據本研究結果所得，發現中共黨和國家領導人涉台講話的內容，漸有「輕政治、重經濟與交流」的現象，另外還輔以不斷加強的「民族溫情」攻勢，這充分說明中共對台戰略運用務實且靈活的特色。

關鍵字

中共對台政策；國台辦；兩岸關係；內容分析法；歷史研究途徑

並列摘要

Communist Party of China "policy toward Taiwan" will change over time. However, the succession and continuity of the policy , still can not be ignored. This article wants to make a discussion about the CCP's policy toward Taiwan Changes . In this article,we will use the important speech which published on the Taiwan Affairs Officeas's website as the basis , just because of its background . Taiwan Affairs Office of Taiwan Affairs Office, which are the CPC Central Committee and State Council established,are in charge of Taiwan affairs office. But , In fact, they are a set of men .Once they develop some policy about Taiwan , ready to reach Central Leading Group for Taiwan , whereas , Over the years, the CPC preferred the idea of official media and its point of view .In this context, there is a certain authority and the reference value of the State Council Taiwan Affairs's information . Therefore, this study is to sort out changes in the context of Communist China's Taiwan policy,and to Analysis some of the important speech which the Taiwan Affairs Office website reveals , using"the party and state leaders of the important speech"as the main basis, to view it one by one . I would like to explore 16 years of data, from 1996 to 2011 , to understand the change of Communist China's Taiwan policy . This study will use content analysis through qualitative and quantitative analysis in parallel to make inspection certificate.