習近平時期中共對台政策與兩岸關係之研究(2012~2018)

1949年國共內戰過後，兩岸呈現分治局面，而中共「對台政策」係自國民政府退居台灣之後開始。其本質雖堅持兩岸必須統一與「一個中國」的原則，然中共仍宣稱「不承諾放棄使用武力」，但是「對台政策」之內涵是有明顯的改變。無論是策略或是根本的變，不可否認中共的「對台政策」仍有明顯轉變。中共歷經改革開放後，政權逐漸穩固，在這21新世紀，中國大陸儼然已崛起成為世界強權之一；然台灣在威權政治體制下，以致人民意識形態崛起，興起台灣獨立運動的思維，使得兩岸關係逐漸緊繃，形成對峙的局面。因此在如何堅持我政府兩岸政策立場的同時，讓大陸兼顧外交立場與兩岸關係的善意與彈性狀態，是兩岸政府之間重大的敏感議題。在1980年代末期，兩岸政府的政治對立一度緩和後，民間交流逐漸恢復。在2015年11月7日，兩岸領導人馬英九與習近平首次在新加坡會面，更是自1949年政治分立後，近70 年以來雙方最高層次領導人的首次會晤，象徵兩岸歷史上最大突破。而我國2016年政黨再次輪替，台獨色彩濃厚之民進黨再次執政，自520執政以來，蔡英文政府挾帶柔性台獨主張，積極迫使中共體認「台灣共識」以取代「九二共識」，使中國大陸因對民進黨政府的兩岸政策感到憂慮，因而頻頻對台施壓，使得兩岸交流日趨弱化。隨著兩岸人民互動頻繁，面對兩岸政治關係獲致改善，但彼此互信尚待建立的同時，唯有兩岸能抓住當前歷史機遇，共創和平共榮的歷史新頁，提出秉持「正視現實、開創未來；擱置爭議、追求雙贏」，共同尋求兩岸利益的平衡點，充分展現兩岸政府對推動兩岸關係的誠意。在中共召開十九大後，中共領導人之對台政策會隨著兩岸關係之發展與中國大陸國內外之因素而產生變化與影響，因此，分析中共未來的「對台政策」可能的走向及變化，值得國人深思與探討。

關鍵字

對台政策；習近平；一個中國原則；九二共識；十九大

並列摘要

After the Kuomintang-Communist Civil War in 1949, the two sides of the Taiwan Strait started separate domination. The Chinese Communist Party’s” Taiwanese Policy" began after the Kuomintang (henceforth referred to as KMT) government retreated to Taiwan. Although the policy’s essence insists that the two sides of the strait must reunite under the principle of "one China”, and the Chinese Communist Party (henceforth referred to as CCP) still declares they do not undertake to renounce the use of force, the content of the "Taiwanese policy" has changed significantly. Either the change is only temporary strategy or fundamental alteration, it is undeniable that the "Taiwanese policy" has indeed been changed. After the CCP’s Chinese economic reform, the regime has been gradually consolidated.In the 21st century, the People's Republic of C hina (PRC) found by CCP has emerged as one of the world’s strongest powers. On the other side, under KMT’s authoritarian regime, Taiwanese people thinking of the independence movement, which causes the gradual tension and confrontation in cross-strait relations. Therefore, it is a sensitive topic for Taiwan government to insist the stand of cross-strait policy, while expecting the China government to have their own diplomatic stance as well as positive attitude and flexibility. In the late 1980s, after the political opposition between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait had been eased, non-governmental exchanges gradually resumed. On November 7, 2015, the leaders of the two sides Ma Ying-jeou and Xi Jinping met for the first time in Singapore. Since the political separation in 1949, it was the first time that the highest level leaders of two sides had met over the past 70 years. It symbolized the biggest breakthrough in cross-strait history.In 2016, when Taiwan’s leading party alteration happened after election, the Democratic Progressive Party (henceforth referred to as DPP) which has strong Taiwan independence stand holds power again. Since their ruling from May 20 in 2016, the government leaded by president Tsai has taken a flexible Taiwan independence stand. They actively pressed the CCP government of PRC to recognize the Taiwan Consensus” over “1992 consensus”. The China CCP government started to concern the cross-strait policy of Taiwan DPP government, and intensified the pressure to Taiwan, making cross-strait exchanges weaker over time. While people from both sides are having frequent interaction, the political relationship is improving but mutual trust has yet to be established. At this timing, two sides of the strait have to seize the historical opportunities and create a new page of peace and common prosperity. We must confront the reality, create a future, put aside disputes and pursue a win-win situation. To seek a balance of cross-strait benefits is important for the new Taiwan DPP government to show their sincerity in improving cross-strait relation. After the CCP’s holding of the Nineteenth National Congress, the CCP’s policy towards Taiwan will change based on domestic and international factors in mainland China, and influence the development of cross-Strait relations. Therefore, the analysis of the possible trend of the CCP's "Taiwan policy" is important for Taiwanese people to study and explore.