中共「航天戰略」虛實研究：以載人太空船發展為例

The Truth and Falsehood Research of China“Space Strategy”:Take the Manned Spacecraft Development as the Example

鍾志運(Chih-Yun Chung)

指導教授 ： 曾復生

淡江大學/國際研究學院/國際事務與戰略研究所碩士在職專班/碩士(2008年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2008.00126

摘要

中共目前已成為繼美、俄兩國之後，第三個將人類送上太空的國家，此舉不僅代表中共已躋身航天強國之列，同時也對中共綜合國力之提升有莫大的助益。
本論文蒐集台海學者之研究著作，並結合平面媒體之報導，以及網路刊載之第一手資料，採歷史研究法、文獻分析法，目的在探討中共「航天戰略」形成背景及其理論的內涵、探究未來中共載人太空船運用之可能走向，並探討評估中共載人太空船的戰略性能力虛實。
研究結果發現，中共「航天戰略」中載人太空船之發展，以綜合國力之提升、軍事威懾之展現，以及國際地位之躍進為最具突破性，至於經濟面向如何由高度尖端科技轉化為商業，仍只停留於理論階段，想要獲取實際經濟效益，此時仍流於畫餅，有極大努力的空間。
目前中共之載人航天科技之發展，尚需面對三大挑戰：（一）能否儘快掌握新一代運載火箭的核心技術；（二）如何建立新型太空探測運輸系統和空間站；（三）如何消減「中國威脅論」的國際疑慮。
至於未來研究方向，可著眼於：（一）中共載人航天科技發展之策略運用；（二）透過戰略運用師中共長技培育台灣載人航天人才；（三）掌控中共載人航天科技戰略之轉變。
由於本論文所探討範圍係屬中共之尖端科技，受限於環境空間，難以取得中共內部之機密文件，是以僅能參酌海內外學者之專書著作，並廣泛蒐集平面媒體、網路之資訊加以歸納整理，以供學界及有關單位參考。

關鍵字

航天戰略 ； 虛實

並列摘要

Following the USA and Russia, China has become the third country to send human beings onto the space. It not only represents that China’s space technology has entered a new era,but also significantly enhances the comprehensive national power of China.
This dissertation gathers relevant researches and writings of scholars focusing on politics across the strait, and combines reports from print media as well as first-hand data on the internet. By Historical Research and Literature Analysis, its purpose is to probe into the background behind the formation of Chinese “space strategy” and theoretical contents, discuss possible tendencies that China may maneuver manned spaceships in the future, and evaluate their strategic abilities in respect of manned spaceships.
It is discovered that in respect of the development of “space strategy”, China has made the greatest breakthroughs including enhancement of comprehensive national power, demonstration of military threatening, and significant advancement of international status. As for the economic aspect that how to transform the high technology into commerce remains in the theoretical stage with a castle in the air. There is still large space for striving if they are willing to obtain practical economic benefits.
Recently the development of China’s manned space flight technology still faces three challenges:
1.whether they can control core technologies of the new-generation missile.
2.how to establish a new transportation system and space station for space exploration.
3.how to mitigate international anxieties towards “The China Threat”.
As for the research direction in the future, it is suggested to focus on the following aspects:
1.strategy utilization in respect of the development of China’s manned space flight technology.
2.learning China’s strengths through strategy utilization to cultivate experts regarding manned space flight in Taiwan.
3.monitoring the transformation of China’s strategy in manned space flight technology.
Because this dissertation probes into China’s top advanced technology, it is difficult to acquire internal confidential documents due to limitations of the environment. By merely analyzing materials based on book writings of domestic and foreign scholars, broad connections from print media and information on the internet, this dissertation can be references to the academic circle and relevant units.

並列關鍵字

Space Strategy ； Truth and Falsehood

參考文獻

林宗達，《赤龍之爪》。台北：黎明文化事業股份有限公司，2002年2月。

王高成，〈美中的戰略互動與台海安全〉。台北：全球政治評論，第14期，2006年4月，頁19-33。

王振東，〈軍事事務革命對現代戰爭之影響〉。台北：遠景基金會季刊，第5卷3期，2004年7月，頁99-133。

高雄柏，〈從神舟五號談台海軍情〉。台北：海峽評論，第156期，2003年12月，頁21-23。

徐蕙萍，〈中共新聞媒體在軍事事務變革中扮演的角色與作用〉。台北：復興崗學報，第85期，2005年12月，頁1-23。