中國汽、柴油需求之探討 － 以省份與行業別分析

Chinese Gasoline and Diesel Demand - China's Provinces and Items Analysis

鄭瑩琦(Yin-Chi Cheng)

指導教授 ： 廖惠珠

淡江大學/商學院/經濟學系碩士班/碩士(2010年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2010.00118

摘要

本文透過縱橫資料分析法，從省份別與行業別的角度切入，分別探討中國1999-2007年 30個省市級行政區與1995-2007年8種行業之汽、柴油需求發展。
省份別之估計結果顯示，不論汽油或柴油模型，汽、柴油價格之係數皆符合預期，但係數皆為無彈性，此結果可能與中國當時的油品價格並未遵循市場機制有關；兩模型之人均GDP也都顯著為正，相較於文獻，本文之所得彈性較低，此與中國各省普遍高估GDP成長率及低估能源統計數據有關。
透過本研究可知中國之GDP與汽車數皆是影響中國油品需求的因素，目前中國各地區之汽、機車人口日漸增加與交通運輸業及製造業的發展，勢必使中國未來的油品需求持續增加。

關鍵字

中國 ； 汽油需求 ； 柴油需求 ； 縱橫資料分析法

並列摘要

This paper applies the panel data analysis to examine the gasoline and the diesel demand of China over 30 provinces from 1999 to 2007 and 8 items from 1995 to 2007 separately.
The provincial estimation results show that the coefficients of gasoline price and diesel price are in line with our expectation, but have no influence on gasoline and diesel consumption significantly whether it’s a gasoline model or a diesel model. This may be due to the failure of market mechanism in China during our observing period. The coefficients of GDP per capita for gasoline and diesel models influence gasoline and diesel consumption separately. Also we find our income elasticity of demand is lower than other related literatures’. This may be the China's GDP grow rate was overestimated and energy statistics was underestimated generally.
Our results indicate that GDP and numbers of motor vehicles both affect China’s oil demand. At present, vehicle population in each province of China, transportation industry and manufacturing industry are still playing the driving force to increase China's demand for oil.

並列關鍵字

China ； Gasoline Demand ； Diesel Demand ； Panel Data Analysis

參考文獻

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